Crystal electric / canyuan LED layout, dense advantage

Taiwan ITRI IEK energy and economic research group leader Lin Zhixun said, LED industry, in 2010 the rapid expansion of China import MOCVD machine capacity, expected in 2011 will continue to increase, the fastest in 2011, MOCVD machine production scale may be on a par with Taiwan, and even beyond, the low order LED grain prices probably will be under way kill, bring great pressure on the operation of Taiwan LED companies in 2011. However, even if the competitive environment will become more dangerous, but manufacturers such as EPISTAR (2448), canyuan photoelectric (3061), because the upstream and downstream distribution strategy in the competition advantage. The change should still have relative advantage.

According to the observation, China, 2008 only about more than and 100 sets of MOCVD machine, MOCVD machine installation in 2010 had a total of more than and 330 units, and then the MOCVD machine is 42 Aixtron, Veeco and other major equipment manufacturers in 2009 before the launch of the (investment amount) machine or 45 pieces of machine of new generation machine. The new machine has recently began trial production, in 2010 output is not obvious, but with the whole process run slowly along the expected, the fastest in the first quarter of 2011, will continue to see, LED epitaxial grain / new capacity brings considerable influence to the entire LED industry.

The first to bear the pressure from the Chinese mainland LED epitaxial / grain new production capacity, that is, the LED epitaxial / crystal manufacturers. The main reason is that these LED new capacity in mainland China pushed to the market, will be the first to go to the lower order of the market, until the low order market finished, it will slowly the central Korean higher market offensive. Since LED is one of the key industries to support the government, it seems that the mainland LED epitaxial / crystal manufacturers, abundant funds, money and manpower.

And the fact of low order LED grain market was also important areas of Taiwan LED manufacturers. Lin Zhixun said, even recently from all walks of life actively promoted, hoping to bring the Taiwan LED industrial upgrading, but before completely into the high-end market, low order market should still take good care, after all this is enough to provide sufficient capacity to block manufacturers to the volume to allow manufacturers to survive the market.

However, if from the point of view of individual manufacturers, LED epitaxial development and orders in 2011, it should be relatively stable. For example, crystal electric not only to 2011 may have close to 300 Taiwan MOCVD machine capacity, and pan crystal electric group member Guangjia (8199), Taigu (3339), South Asia photoelectric etc.. Total pan Electric Group's MOCVD machine capacity will reach more than 400 units.

Coupled with the international electricity supplier LED crystal and patent licensing, and has a joint venture, not only product development is more accessible, for higher order LED order more positive help. The upstream layout through investment sapphire factory, Zhaoyuan Zhaojing, contribute to the material source is stable, and the downstream China electronic information industry group (group companies including TPV AOC, Nanjing panda, Chinese the Great Wall and so on) cooperation is conducive to stability in the sea.

Canyuan in the downstream strategy layout is quite complete. Department of Datong group (Chang and upper wisdom etc.) strategic shareholding relationship, the downstream and LCD TV maker Amtran (2489), South Korea LGDisplay panel makers to set up a joint venture, now the competition condition also have relative advantage.

As for Au (2409) group of lextar (3698), CMO (3481) investment Qili, and internal Samsung, LG group's LED capacity, because most of the Department of supply group occupied, it is expected that the influence degree of the new capacity, China, may be smaller. It is alone LED epitaxial crystal / grain manufacturers, in 2011 may face a new competitive situation, its operating changes, orders situation, it is worth continuing concern.

However, the gross profit margin, whether big or small factory, Jeehoon Lin stressed that if the low order LED grain prices as expected a continuous decline, the 2011 Taiwan LED epitaxial grain manufacturers gross margin to maintain this level in 2010 40% as boom, should be unlikely.

According to estimates, mainland China to the end of 2010, the total number of MOCVD machine installation will reach more than and 330 units. Since the end of the message if the manufacturers in mainland China projections, the number of installed MOCVD machine in 2011 as a whole, more conservative calculation will reach 700-800 (manufacturers more optimistic estimate to 1000), even some leading manufacturers of Taiwan's MOCVD machine, pure land owned enterprises in the installation of the total may reach 500-600, the equivalent of and more than 1 of Taiwan's LED industry supply.

More importantly, these machines are in the last two years to expand, so are a new generation of high investment tablets. With the largest LED epitaxial / Chinese, grain mill of Xiamen Sanan, estimated in 2010 the total number of MOCVD units of about more than and 40 units, estimated that by 2011 the installed capacity will reach 100 units, the production scale is at least approaching canyuan level, but also almost all of the new machine, the overall yield of competitiveness have to fight.

At present, Chinese investment to set up the front MOCVD process manufacturers in Taiwan, Suzhou factory (estimated 50 cases of lextar Taiwan), canyuan and Ruixuan and joint lucidity (estimated 50), Changzhou (estimated 50 factory EPISTAR Taiwan), Dingyuan (2426) Fuzhou plant (estimated 30 units), new century (3383) Kunshan plant (estimated 50) etc..

Taiwan LED manufacturers in 2010 while also continuing to expand MOCVD machine, MOCVD machine installation is estimated to Taiwan total should reach about 600 units by the end of 2010, 2011 for manufacturers have moved to the mainland China, estimation of MOCVD machine in Taiwan plant expansion speed will slow down a lot.