Ten forecast of semiconductor equipment industry in 2011

What will happen 2011 global semiconductor equipment industry? The following is a summary of the Barclays Capital's famous analyst CJMuse after collecting various reports as follows;

1.Fabtoolupturn semiconductor equipment industry is still growing?

Will see the 2011 semiconductor equipment industry investment may be flat, or between 5-10% growth. Growth momentum comes from investments such as flash growth by 36% over the year, reaching $9 billion 800 million. Logic circuits in terms of investment growth of 4%, $11 billion 600 million, and the manufacturing investment growth of 4%, $13 billion 900 million, and the DRAM investment may decline by nearly 12%, to $10 billion 700 million, a total investment of $46 billion in integrated circuit.

2.PotentialM&Aactivity industry merger intensified

In 2010, according to the published data in the test equipment, the first Verigy merger LTX-Credence, then the Japanese Advantest Verigy merger. What will happen in 2011? There may be big progress in the field of LED. Others such as AppliedMaterials (AMAT) are peering at MOCVD manufacturers (Veeco, Aixtron). In addition, due to the lack of AMAT lithography equipment, it is possible to look at the Ultratech, no doubt AMAT will be re merged in the C-Si photovoltaic equipment.

LamResearch to strategy of mergers, but it is not clear where the direction? It is likely to be aimed at small and medium companies that have the potential to develop advanced technology.

KLATencor company's recent performance record, adequate cash flow, it is a good time to merger. But it has the advantage in the process of testing equipment, but does not rule out it will annex some LED packaging company. It should be said that some small testing equipment companies such as (NANO, RTEC, NVMI, FEIC, etc.) can be used as the object of its merger.

Finally, take the initiative to consider the appreciation of the yen and the recent Advantest industry, looking forward to seeing in Japan before the equipment manufacturers, such as TokyoElectron, DainipponScreen and HitachiHighTechnologies, there will be more mergers.

3.ASMLrollsrivalsASML squeeze competitors

ASML will continue to expand market share, and the proportion of lithography equipment of the former equipment continues to increase. Because the orders of the top manufacturers in 2012 will double (including immersion and EUV), so until 2012 the proportion of lithography equipment in the WFE (the former process equipment) will continue to expand.

The company forecast 2011 immersion lithography machine orders from 130 up to 138 units, and 2010 to 115 units. Obviously, among the 138 orders, which is still the largest manufacturer of memory manufacturers, for the 78 units, accounting for 57%, followed by the logic of the circuit for the production of Taiwan and Taiwan for the 28 units of 32.

From us ASML may increase the market share in Intel, because the Intel is using the two mask technique is costly, and the possibility of GlobalFoundries in small, and Toshiba has to buy too many Nikon devices. Overall ASML market share is expected to continue to expand.

In Muse view, Intel in the advanced process of lithography equipment, in 2011 ASML to share of 100%, while Nikon gradually decreased, but Nikon is still at the IBM club in lithography equipment orders in dominant.

4.ASML-AstarisbornASML is still a shining star

From both the target and the company's own analysts predict the market outlook is still quite bright ASML.

Analyst is expected in the first half of 2011 the market order will be compared to most people's expectations of higher than 19%, but in 2011 Q1 and Q2 orders this year compared to the Q4 record value may decline, this is obviously not be considered to have entered the cycle of decline period, due to the first half of the 2011 orders only EUV equipment may 10.

5.Lithoboom lithography equipment is still prosperous

When immersion lithography equipment, which can be used to reduce the size, but also can expand new wafer production capacity, usually buy dry KrF (248nm) and ArF (193nm) will reduce the number of photolithography machine. However, according to the company's statistics in 2010 the total amount of dry KrF and ArF lithography shipments reached 104 units, by the year of 2011 increased to 147 units. It is clear that the new silicon wafer project will reach a new level, reflecting the prospect of semiconductor equipment is still quite good.

6.Applied:Backtothefuture applied materials, good prospects

In 2011 equipment industry, AMAT is still the leader. Although also heard it for criticism in the thin film solar equipment, but because it's Sunfab to give up the decision, now ESS has been able to achieve profitability, but the industry also has for its Sunfab decided to give up expressed different views.

Also has never been unified opinion that, in 2011, AMAT is still very optimistic about the performance. As in WFE is still far ahead, EES department can achieve profitability and AGS gross margin continued to improve.

AMAT expects its share of the semiconductor part of the market growth of 2% to 20.5% in 2010. Application continues to execute its manufacturing department from Austin to Singapore transfer. We are looking forward to the recent AMAT in order to reach a consensus with Samsung's bulk order negotiations.

7.Appliedfaceschallenges application materials challenges

AMAT better than TokyoElectron in etching equipment, CMP (chemical mechanical polishing) equipment is better than Ebara and Semitool can keep in wafer package level equipment with a strong position in TSMC and Intel's market share may increase. So AMAT is still in the global semiconductor equipment