11 predictions of the global semiconductor industry in 2005

Will the development trend of 2005 global semiconductor industry? The famous American semiconductor news and analysis media Silicon Strategies recently released 2005 and beyond time in the global semiconductor industry forecast 11, senior editor of these predictions were from Silicon Strategies, and major U.S. semiconductor market research firm analyst.

05 years of zero growth in the IC industry, inventory is still a problem

Silicon Strategies editor Mark insisted that in 2004 the semiconductor industry grew by 22.7% in 2005, the growth rate of zero in.

Princeton Tech analyst Paul Leming is also expected, although unit shipments will rise by 8%, but the growth rate of the IC market in 2005 will be zero in Research. Paul Leming also believes that the current inventory correction problem will be eased in the first quarter of 2005 or the beginning of the second quarter.

Capital expenditure reduction, IC equipment market decline

Pacific Crest Securities analyst Mark Bachman believes that in 2005 the semiconductor manufacturing equipment industry situation is bad, due to capital expenditures will decline in. He said: "I now predict 2005 capital expenditures will be reduced by 12% compared to 2004. This prediction is only a reference point."

LaPedus also said that in 2004 the IC manufacturing equipment market grew by 50%, but in 2005 will decline by 20%. Overall, the IC industry in 2005 will be a substantial retreat. In the current market downturn, IC vendors are still in the digestive capacity.

A large number of 300mm wafer plant put into operation, China is the pioneer

Strategic Marketing Associates analyst Christian Gregor forecast, 300 mm wafer production capacity in the next two years will rise by 64% in. The analyst also predicted that the next two years there will be 26 new 300 mm wafer plant completed and put into operation.

Currently, Strategic Marketing Associates lists 37 of the running 300 mm wafer fab. About 1/3 of the production of memory chips, less than 1/3 of foundry production wafers, about 1/4 in the production logic IC.

The largest capacity of 300 mm wafer factory is the force crystal semiconductor, the United States, Samsung (Samsung) and Infineon (Infineon) owns those factories." Dieseldorff representation. "However, the Inotera in the promotion of a 300 mm factory output, the maximum monthly production capacity is the 54000, will be fierce competition with tsmc."

Dieseldorff predicts that China will build more 300 mm plant. "Macro power semiconductor plans to build a 300 mm plant in China, SMIC is currently building a factory of a 300 mm." He said. "We expect that there will be more alliances with companies, and the construction of more than 300 mm plants in China, such as Hynix- STMicroelectronics (STMicro) in China to build a joint venture with a 300 mm plant. Freescale Carle (Freescale) and PHILPS (Philips) also hope to build a 300 mm factory cooperation."

Samsung will dominate the NOR market, Hynix disrupt the NAND Market

ISuppli Nam Kim, principal analyst at Hyung, believes that in 2005 the new NAND vendors will gain substantial market share, while existing vendors are threatened. In the third quarter of 2004, Samsung is the largest supplier of NAND flash memory, the market share of, followed by Toshiba (29.2%), Renesas Technology (), Hynix (5.1%), Ying Feiling (0.6%) and STMicroelectronics (2).

New entrants to the NAND market will gain market share, especially Hynix will take away the market of other manufacturers." Kim representation. Toshiba and Samsung will continue to dominate the market." The United States' (Micron Technology) will also be big gains.

Intel and Spansion are struggling to grab the first place in the market share of the NOR flash market. In the NOR market, Intel's share in the third quarter of 2004 exceeded Spansion. According to iSuppli's Kim, ranked by market share, 2004 Spansion is likely to continue to be the largest NOR flash supplier.

However, Silicon Strategies LaPedus predicted that in 2005 Intel and Spansion will lose the throne of the largest NOR flash supplier. He predicted that Samsung will become the NOR market, as well as the king of the NAND market.

MRAM is still half covered

Silicon Strategies LaPedus believes that the next generation of nonvolatile memory market in 2005 will be sluggish performance. Although Altis, IBM, Freescale Carle, Infineon and other vendors have announced the launch of the MRAM, but in 2005 MRAM shipments will be close to zero. Other technologies, including FRAM and OUM, the situation will not be too good.

The problem is simple. These novel memory chips are difficult to manufacture. The traditional NAND and NOR flash for a period of time will still rule the roost.

DVD chip market outlook is not good

IDC predicts that from 2004 to 2008, the overall DVD semiconductor sales, including DVD players and recorders, will grow at a CAGR of 11%, close to $3 billion 700 million in 2008. DVD player semiconductor sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 21%, reaching $637 million 800 thousand in 2008. DVD VCR semiconductor sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 39.1% to $3 billion by 2008.

2005 DVD chip market outlook is still questionable. IDC believes that China's economic overheating, excessive inventory and other issues, will prevent the growth of DVD players and recorders semiconductor sales, which will continue until 2005.

300mm plant component boundaries, foundry manufacturers marriage

There must be something in the foundry market. Too many vendors are actually doing the same thing. But in "a (have)" and "no" (have nots) are quite distinct from each other. ". "Who" has a 300 mm factory, and "no" is not a factory of 300 mm.

There are too many "no" in the market. So "no"