2017 LED chip demand is expected to grow 12.5% in short supply pattern

LED from full competition into the era of steady growth, Chinese products to the world. From the LED industry cycle of speaking, in depth after reshuffle in 2015 and 2016, the supply side reforms more fully, LED industry has been in the S industry curve second wavelength cattle open: from LED upstream supply, accelerate the upgrading of industry concentration of production capacity, the formation of higher trade barriers, curb disorderly expansion of production capacity; while the downstream application innovation drive the vigorous development of the industrial chain. From the current point of view, accelerate market space increased 1.3 times and small spacing display the explosive growth of LED lighting, LED lighting to accelerate the penetration of intelligent network, the main driving force is becoming a new round of leading LED industry boom.

Supply side

2016 new production capacity of the old model of the contraction of the old model, the effective production capacity of 83 million 280 thousand in 2016 as of the effective production capacity of about 1083 units (more than 49 machines and the corresponding capacity) of about 63 million pieces / year in 2017.

The current 45 ~49 models (equivalent to about 1033 k465i54 tablet production capacity of about 60 million 240 thousand / year) in a weak start situation, over time will be phased out. 2016 overall supply demand to maintain a weak balance, structural tension in some products. It is understood that, in 2017 LED chip leading enterprises increased by about 345 units (converted VeecoK465i models of the 54 machines). Which includes some of the old models to buy second-hand equipment improvements, so by the end of 2017 the global effective production capacity of up to 83 million 280 thousand / year.

Demand side

In 2017 92 million 350 thousand, chip demand growth of 12.5% in 2017 92 million 350 thousand according to estimates on demand LED epitaxial wafer sheet (2 inch tablet, which converted) 47 million 40 thousand lighting chip demand growth of 20%; 26 million 20 thousand pieces of outdoor full color display demand growth of 5%; 1 million 20 thousand pieces of small spacing indoor demand growth of 50%; hand machine backlight demand 1 million 390 thousand tablet computer backlight demand; 440 thousand; computer and TV backlighting demand 6 million 990 thousand; automobile demand 1 million 60 thousand; about 8 million 390 thousand other tablets.

In summary, we can see that in 2017, the total demand for the chip area is estimated at 92 million 350 thousand, an increase of about 12.5%.

Guoxin Securities believes that any industry capacity is slightly higher than the demand is the stable characteristics of supply and demand, and in 2017 12.5% LED demand remains steady growth, so Guoxin Securities in 2017 to determine the LED chip in short supply at the end of 2017, LED chip production capacity of about 83 million 280 thousand, about 92 million 350 thousand pieces of demand

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