Chinese LED chip industry characteristics: get up quickly, die quickly

The mighty river flows eastward. waves are the development of the LED industry seems to be irregular, but we can find the tide in irregular rhythm.

Why is there a cyclical supply and demand law and light season changes? Why is the most successful Australian Shunchang model? Why is it that almost all of the Chinese and Japanese sources, which were founded in 2006, have different fates? How can we grasp the next wave of expansion and investment in the exact point of time?

Today, we feel like a roller coaster ride together to stimulate the LED industry.

Periodic supply and demand transformation rules of LED

We know that the earth's rotation causes day and night, the earth around the sun, the four seasons change, the nature of the cycle of change is almost constant.

The same in the electronic industry has little change period and the period before, around Christmas in the west, the electronics industry cycle every year, season five, poor six off seven hanging Taiwan business information hardware industry more than and 10 years of empirical observations, but generally only about five of six poor must, rarely mentioned seven bedroom ", this means: a year in December, production, OEM orders and other aspects of revenue information hardware, in May and June will be up to the downturn, that is, the meaning of the off-season, Xiaoyue danyue. The relative major is in December, is the main Christmas market.

A few years with another wave of replacement and electronic industry cycle, so from the beginning of the semiconductor invention, it was predicted the development trend of the integrated circuit, so far as Moore's law almost throughout the year of precision, but also no mistakes.

Similarly, LED is a very special industry, cyclical technology and cost also has a Heinz law, but the cyclical market transformation but elusive, today I try to use my memory to help you organize the LED industry's rotation and revolution, let everyone remember this the more than and 20 years history of surge high and sweep forward LED.

The LED cycle: years season change

2010 years ago, LED year's boom look at Taiwan, Taiwan's boom to see the Western Christmas, why is it so?

We know that Christmas is like Chinese new year, is the most important festival in a year, before Christmas shopping spree is promoting western electronics industry chain the biggest promoter, in addition to the computer, mobile phone and PDA as Christmas gifts, Christmas lights to the festive atmosphere, more not less, LED to replace the traditional Christmas lights, before LED is widely used in lighting, decorative Christmas lights are LED great way, and seasonal order is very obvious, the swift and fast, overtime is common to the off-season almost nothing, this order is a major test for production management.

After 2010, LED began to penetrate the lighting market, plus China domestic demand rise, in addition to the Western Christmas season, LED has a Chinese factor of the season, after the summer season, September began a wave of small climax, especially the lights of Zhongshan Ancient Town, on behalf of the traffic jam began to warm the.

Figure 1: show the boom look at Shenzhen, the boom of the lights to see the ancient town, the town of the thermometer is the city with the city

The big cycle: caused changes does not match the technological breakthrough and on the downstream expansion rhythm

Decision cycle, the early revolutionary technological breakthrough, after 2011, technological breakthroughs compared to turtle speed, the decision cycle is LED, the permeability of growth, downstream demand driven in the middle reaches of the upstream chip packaging and plant expansion, the plant expansion rhythm leads to different market cycles of ups and downs.

Let's take a look at the trend of technological breakthroughs:

1 1994~2002 years, confused but charming Blu ray LED

Before 2002, LED technology is not mature, high cost, full-color display and traffic lights are the main application, the flashlight, gift key ring and banknote pen also because blue LED become a luxury, Nakamura Shuji's invention is still not fully blossom, 1999 with old club Nichia falling out to go to the United States, but he left Nichia technology assets, let Nichia monopoly in the market, the patent also hindered the progress of LED. Such a situation in 2002, the first turning point.

2 2002~2010 is a major breakthrough in the production of technology to replace the market relay

This is basically a few years in Taiwan China control cycles of imitation and innovation is the originator of Taiwan LED manufacturers, through the returnees and ITRI's technology integration, Taiwan began to make technological breakthrough, let LED to penetrate in one application field. I think this period is a technology driven market, technology led LED cycle.

As shown in Figure two, the first wave of 2002, because of the use of laser cutting technology to replace the diamond knife cutting machine, 20 pieces about MOCVD to replace 6 chip, LED chip costs began to decline, start one by one from the mobile phone to mobile phone keypad backlight penetration. The extension of coarse and ITO transparent electrode technology allows instant LED brightness doubled, small and medium size LCD backlight is lost. Flip Flip Chip with a high power technology, so that street lights and outdoor lighting began to enter the LED era.

In 2006, the green chip technology began to mature, the localization of display technology, mainland China has become the dominant screen. Chip size reduction, cutting technology is mature, after 2006, LED become the main role of Christmas lights and decorative lights.

Beginning in 2008, chip technology