Dou Linping, Secretary General of China Illuminating Society: analysis of domestic lighting industry

On September 7, 2018, the 2018 China Lighting Forum opened in Shangyu. Dou Linping, Secretary General of China Lighting society, first made a report on the analysis of domestic lighting industry hotspots at the meeting. The report summarizes the development of the lighting industry in the past 20 years, and makes a thorough analysis of the current hotspot in the lighting industry, so as to provide new ideas for the future development of the lighting industry.

Dou Linping, Secretary General of China Illuminating Society

In 2018, influenced by the economic environment at home and abroad, the lighting industry entered the stage of structural adjustment, industrial integration and shuffling that had been predicted a few years ago, and the ice and fire days of the industry were particularly prominent in the first half of this year. Summarizing and analyzing the hot spots of the industry and judging the trend of the future lighting industry are of great significance to the parties in the lighting industry chain.

Basic situation of lighting industry

The gross output value of the lighting industry has been developing rapidly, steadily and continuously for two years in the 20 years from 1998 to 2017. The growth of 2015 has entered a single digit. In 2016, the export has declined, and 2017 has resumed growth again.

Table 1: Sales of China's lighting industry in 1998 -2017

Exports remained basically on the rise. The two decline was due to the decline in exports in 2008 due to the world financial crisis in 2009, and the decrease in exports due to the fall in international market demand in 2016. Export proportion has basically accounted for 40%-45% of total output value for many years.

Table two: export volume of China's lighting industry in 1998 -2017

Table three: export share in total output value

As can be seen from table four, LED lighting started to break out in 2013, and conservatively estimated that LED lighting accounted for more than 85% of the total industry output value in 2017, and LED lighting has become the absolute mainstream of lighting industry.

Table four: ratio of LED lighting to total output value (100 million RMB)

Circulation market: ice and fire

Most dealers generally reflect that the market is the most difficult period since this year. From the urban analysis, the central city dropped significantly, 30% or even higher. From the regional analysis, the southeastern coastal area decreased significantly, most of which reflected a decrease of more than 30% in the first half compared with the same period last year, and a slight decrease of 15% in the western and southwestern regions.

Part of the professional lighting market is affected by the environment, and there is a phenomenon of vacancy. Changes in the market, naturally affect the production enterprises, some enterprises, especially household decoration, lanterns and other decorative lighting enterprises, turnover fell by 30%, or even 50%. Even if the company's revenue growth is small, it is also facing the pain and embarrassment of the decline in gross profit.

Analysis of the decline is mainly due to the following reasons: structural adjustment of the economy, especially the regulation of the real estate market, has led to a decline in demand; the role of designers has increased, and the share of hidden channels has been increased; the requirements of hardcover housing and integrated ceiling have formed a collection; the development of e-commerce (Jingdong, millet, Tmall... The market of some standard products has been diverted, brand awareness has been improved and sales have been more concentrated.

While the overall market environment is not optimistic, some enterprises continue to maintain steady growth in revenues and profits, such as OPPLE, Sidon, and enterprise I.

Measures taken by enterprises to maintain growth include strengthening brand publicity, strengthening product development and market development in specialized fields, expanding new businesses and channels, strengthening services and providing overall solutions.

The sales mode of the buyers who have opened up shop, hang up the lamp, sit and wait for buyers has not adapted to the current market situation. Dealers need to change. The same producers also need to seek changes in the new economic environment, otherwise they will be eliminated in the process of shuffling and integration.

Urban landscape lighting is the biggest highlight of the industry.

From Hangzhou G20 to Xiamen BRIC summit and Qingdao summit, urban landscape lighting plays a pivotal role. Urban landscape lighting continued to boom in the first half of 2018 following the outbreak in 2017. Beautify the city, develop the night tour economy, increase income, enhance the happiness, sense of security and sense of security of urban residents. The economic value and social value of urban landscape lighting are constantly being excavated.

The demonstration effect of urban landscape lighting in international large-scale activities has also attracted the attention of governments at all levels, and urban landscape lighting is starting from the central city to the two or three line city. The development of Characteristic Towns and beautiful villages will also boost the development of landscape lighting.

The development of urban landscape lighting has promoted the professional design, construction and outdoor manufacturers' performance improvement of lighting industry, and has become an important growth point for the lighting industry under the circumstance of depression.

There are still some problems in the development of urban nightscape lighting, which need attention, such as light pollution, excessive brightness, excessive dazzling, too much color, too strong dynamic and so on. Recently, there are different voices and even radicalization in the industry and outside for city nightscape lighting.

The current situation of urban nightscape lighting should be viewed from two aspects: urban needs and industrial development. First of all, we need to know who to serve the city's nightscape lighting and conform to the national conditions and culture. Secondly, the pursuit of efficiency is justified by enterprises. Because of the development of LED lighting industry, urban landscape lighting has a new form of expression. At this stage can be said to be the primary stage of urban landscape lighting. As an enterprise, first of all, it is necessary to adapt and adapt to the market and gradually guide the market. In the future, we need to find market hot spots and create new markets.

Starting from the general regulations, deepening the design and avoiding the above problems is the key to ensure the healthy development of urban landscape lighting.

Different opinions and opinions are beneficial to the development of urban landscape lighting, but we hope to offer constructive suggestions to jointly promote the development of urban landscape lighting.

The development of landscape lighting also needs to be paid attention to. For example, it is very common to control the risk of capital, to invest in construction, to do what is right; to pay attention to the quality of construction, to strictly control the quality of products, to shorten the construction period, to leave hidden dangers in product quality and construction quality; to pay attention to policies; to start from themselves, to avoid disorderly competition; and to strengthen follow-up operations and maintenance teams. To accumulate experience in the process of maintenance, and to prepare for further development.

It is the responsibility of every lighting person to ensure the sustainable development of urban nightscape lighting and further promote the progress and development of the lighting industry.

Intelligent lighting is getting better.

Some people describe intelligent lighting as another outlet for the lighting industry. In fact, it is just an inevitable product of industrial progress and market demand.

During the traditional lighting period, we can only use the control system to realize the light and dark adjustment of lighting. Besides the light and dark needs, we can achieve the purpose of energy saving. In the era of LED lighting, we can not only adjust brightness, but also adjust colors and colors. This provides a foundation for building a healthy light environment.

In the past few years, when lighting industry discussed and developed intelligent lighting, more emphasis was placed on form and intelligent control technology itself. In recent years, many enterprises have focused on the demand and application of intelligent lighting. Lighting on demand is the essence of intelligent lighting.

Different space, different working environment and different groups of people need different lighting. Physiological, psychological and human rhythms can be alleviated and adjusted by different lights.

With the progress of research, the lighting intellectualization of home, hotel, office, business and industry is advancing steadily.

With the promotion of smart tourism and smart city, lighting equipment has become the best carrier to use because of its ubiquity in the city. The latest development of optical communication technology, optical transmission signal will soon enter the application stage, and the ubiquitous lighting is an indispensable carrier.

Intelligent lighting is not only green lighting, it is also healthy lighting, it is our carrier to build all things interconnected.

It is the key to the future development of the lighting industry to discuss the demand with relevant experts, integrate with the relevant industries and coordinate with the relevant management departments. For enterprises, simple production of lamps and lanterns,

Selling lamps and lanterns is no longer suitable for the current industry situation. We must have a sense of cross-border and integration. The premise of cross boundary integration is to expand to the relevant fields on the basis of the existing business development of our enterprises.

Capital market faces bottlenecks

In 2016 and 2017, the capital market of the lighting industry was developing rapidly for two years. In the two years, there were more than 10 lighting enterprises listed on the main board, which made the listed companies in the lighting industry close to 50 (main board), and the first-line brands of the lighting industry mostly entered the capital market. Especially in the past two years, mergers and acquisitions are frequent. The capital market has boosted the growth of lighting enterprises.

However, since last October, the IPO policy of the stock market has changed, and the listing of lighting enterprises has become more difficult.

The implementation of the deleveraging policy and the trade war have caused some pressure on the stock market, causing the stock market to fall. In the past few months, the lighting sector, which has been strong in the stock market decline in recent years, began to make up in recent months. The fall of the lighting sector will have an impact on the subsequent acquisition of the lighting sector. The decline in the market value of the stock market will affect the valuation of mergers and acquisitions, thereby affecting the success rate of mergers and acquisitions.

In the face of the current stage of capital market, it is necessary for listed companies to control the pace and to grasp risks in financing.

M & A enterprises need to have a good attitude. With the increase of projects and the improvement of project scale, the demand for funds will increase. In order to maintain the company's development, many engineering companies choose mergers and acquisitions, but they can have a good price when they are at a high capital market. But with the fall of the stock market and the decline of market value, the merger price will also change greatly. How to adjust mentality is very important. Independent IPO, M & A and its development are optional ways.

Paying attention to tariff influence

China is the largest producer of lighting products in the world, and also a big exporter. Its share of GDP is about 45%. The impact of the US trade war on the domestic lighting industry needs to be analyzed.

From the data of the first quarter of this year, domestic lighting exports increased slightly, about 2.79% over the same period last year. For special reasons, customs data were not released in the first half of this year. Judging from the current situation, the export volume in the first half of the year is not large because the first batch of 50 billion tariffs does not contain lighting products. But in the second batch of 200 billion products, almost all the lighting products are covered, which will have a substantial impact on the export of China's lighting products, and then affect the domestic market and lighting industry.

In 2017, the amount of lighting exports was 41 billion 800 million, the US market was about 10 billion 800 million dollars, accounting for about 580 billion yuan of the gross national product of 1/42017, and the US market accounted for 12% of GDP. If implemented, it will create pressure on the domestic lighting enterprises in the US. Negotiations between the two countries are not optimistic at the moment. Even if the outcome of the consultation is more optimistic, no tariff will be imposed on the lighting products, which will also have a certain impact on the export in the second half of the year. It is understood that some American Importers began to purchase goods in advance to prevent customs duties, such as Christmas lamps used for Christmas, which will be reflected in the export data for the second half of the year.

If the tariff is implemented, the lighting enterprises that take the United States as the main market will face difficulties. Meanwhile, suppliers of various components will also have problems, which will further aggravate domestic market competition.

Concluding remarks

Although LED lighting has been developed for 15 years, many advantages of LED lighting are not there.