Dramexchange topology 2018 key component key trends Forum excerpts

The global market research firm TrendForce in December 7th at the National Taiwan University Hospital International Conference Center Room 402AB, held in the state 2018 key components topology trends forum". This seminar highlights excerpts are as follows:

(trendforce Consulting Senior Vice General Manager Zhang Xiaobiao)

Micro LED

Apple Corp since the 2014 acquisition of LuxVue, has become the world's most Micro LED technology and patents, the market began to pay attention to the development trend of apple, Micro and LED have become a focus of attention. However, the current Micro LED is still in the stage of research and development, the main reason is that there are still many technical bottlenecks to be a breakthrough, such as technology transfer, massive crystal epitaxial uniformity, current drive control, and full color production. The performance of Micro LED is excellent, the range of possible applications including mobile phone, car, smart watches display, AR/VR, screen and TV etc.. But consider the technical difficulties and the processing cost is higher, Micro LED is more suitable for TV, display and car used in high order for display. In order to estimate the size of the market, application of large size display and the display screen will become the mainstream.

(trendforce LEDinside Consulting Research Manager Yang Fubao)

Large size panel

The world's first 10.5 generation line will be put into production in the first quarter of 2018, not only refresh the world's largest LCD panel factory records, also let the BOE to sit three at two of the peak shipping new attitude. The production lines of products focused on large size TV panel 65 inch and 75 inch, Taiwan and South Korea panel factory has a layout early this year, this year shipments to 11 million 65 inch tablet; 75 inch tablet shipments amounted to 1 million 600 thousand, the annual growth of up to 123.6%, showed that the 10.5 generation line impact on global panel industry can not be underestimated. IT part of the panel, because demand is becoming saturated, the panel factory in production capacity is limited, through improving internal product specifications and beautify the external borders, strengthen the market for the adhesion of the IT panel, next year is expected to drive the monitor and laptop panel demand increased again. Overall, only adding new capacity on the market next year, at the end of the convergence of old production line, but with the panel prices continued to fall, the favorable brand for various types of sales promotion in the next year, the large size demand area led the 2018 annual growth of 7%, the supply area of the annual growth of 7.7%. With the increased demand, supply and demand ratio is estimated next year from the original 7.8% to pile up in excess of requirement, supply and demand balance 5.2%.

(trendforce WitsView Consulting Research Manager Hu Jiarong)

Small size panel

Apple released the iPhone X aircraft, brought no small impact on the mobile phone market, mobile phone panel specifications began to be converted into AMOLED from TFT-LCD, with a AMOLED capacity investment boom, particularly in the China panel factory the most positive attitude. Although at this stage whether AMOLED technology or production scale, Samsung display will continue to maintain a leading position, is the sole supplier of Apple's iPhone AMOLED panel at present, but the future is bound to face LG Samsung display display, BOE and other other competitors to catch up, expected in 2020, the proportion of small and medium size AMOLED panel production area in South Korea the panel plant will drop to 66%, Chinese panel factory will grow to 23%. In addition, although the supply chain actively pull high TDDI In-Cell touch solutions proportion, but apple in the use of AMOLED panel, while reducing the reliance on In-Cell technology, so the proportion of the overall growth of In-Cell technology also appeared stagnant situation, expected in 2018 accounted for about 25.5%. On the other hand, full screen 18:9 design concept in 2017 gradually forming, with the panel plant in the second half of the year started production of 18:9 panels, mobile phone brands have begun to actively launch a full screen full screen mobile phone, is expected to 2018 aircraft penetration will quickly climbed to 39.6%.

(trendforce WitsView consulting research director Fan Boyu)

Mobile memory

Intelligent mobile phone application memory component price from the third quarter of 2016 began rising to mainstream specifications, in the fourth quarter of this year the average price rose by 40%, not only affects the major brands in the intelligent mobile phone profit performance, but also affected the brand for memory factory specifications and enhance the capacity of the body will. In 2018, the smart mobile phone in the DRAM memory capacity expansion efficiency is limited, and the influence of price trends and supply situation is still tight, continued to rise, driven by the brand factory must carefully evaluate low-cost aircraft production plans, and emerging markets to sell low-priced models for the main marketing strategy. In the single average equipped with memory capacity, memory will also be estimated prices continued bullish depressed growth space is limited, the new Mac capacity increase will be the main growth.

(trendforce DRAMeXchange Consulting Research Manager Huang Yuxuan)

The server

According to TrendForce estimates, 2018 annual global server shipments will grow about 5.3% scale, wisdom and Technology (HPE), DELL (Dell) and Lenovo (Lenovo) is still the top three server shipments brand factory, the overall market share of about 40%. But with the environment of transfer, intelligent terminal device Universal Data Center (ODM Direct) direct OEM will become the overall server market growth momentum, shipments forecast annual growth of 14.4%. If the memory from the supply side, up to now deliver rate remained about seven to 80%, the overall market is still facing shortage. Among them, the first half of next year with the China standard case needs to solve with the new platform scheme for high capacity server module will continue stocking kinetic energy to the end of 2018, prices will remain high in the mainstream module.

(trendforce consulting analyst Liu Jiahao DRAMeXchange)