Dry according to dongmi interpretation: development and Prospect of LED chip industry

In June 20th, Huatai Securities held the 2017 medium-term strategy will be "changelight dongmi Liu Wenhui share a little about the development trend of LED Industry Report at the meeting, Mr. Liu Wenhui's speech will have sorted out to readers.

Changelight dongmi Liu Wenhui

Report content is divided into the following four aspects: the first is the LED of the latest news, what are the meaning in it. The second is the domestic market, what is on the LED industry chain integration direction. The third is to explore in the international market, the global industrial enterprises, involved in the high LED China future opportunities where the future should be how to develop. The fourth is a brief introduction of changelight.

On the domestic news. First, Sanan optoelectronics, April 2017 announced a joint venture with CREE, expand in high power level LED lighting package; in 2017 the company plans to add MOCVD of not less than 150 units. In second cases, HC semitek 2016 completion of the acquisition of Yunnan langene, trading volume 1 billion 80 million; in 2015 the company added MOCVD not less than 100. And Australia Shunchang.

The international market news, on April 2016, the first chip equipment, Fujian Hongxin Investment Fund announced the acquisition of Ace old German semiconductor equipment company, the acquisition is not completed due to the government intervention. The second is the chip market, April 2017, three optical report shows that the company's turnover income exceeds Taiwan veteran leading EPISTAR chip. On third 2015 March, Jinsha River lighting applications, there is a lead fund, is the acquisition of PHILPS lighting business, but also because the U.S. government intervention in the acquisition is not completed. The second is a successful acquisition, by March 5, 2017, the successful acquisition of business capital, IDG rawlinson.

These industry news what meaning in it? First of all, there are several major manufacturers in the expansion, in Chinese inside the LED industry over the past few years, both the production equipment, chip manufacturing, packaging, have achieved very great development, and has a higher position of international companies, competition ability has been greatly improved. Second, each link, LED, especially raw materials, chip manufacturing, packaging and other aspects of energy saving in the field of the next expansion is how to do. Third, further down, China, LED manufacturers and international manufacturers to future competition or cooperation, choose where? Where is the road? There is no hope?

The second part, the domestic market, according to statistics, now, domestic chip factory in the expansion of production capacity from 1 million 800 thousand in 2017, three tablets to reach 2 million 500 thousand, Huacan production capacity to reach 1 million 500 thousand.

With K465I equipment, production capacity of 200 thousand pieces of manufacturers are likely to be eliminated in the next two years, will be part of the product release. The field of statistics we market chip equipment, estimated there are ten manufacturers, these manufacturers in addition to manufacturers outside there are some relatively small, relatively weak strength manufacturers, these manufacturers, production capacity of 200 thousand pieces, with the old equipment. Why do these companies are still alive? Because the industry is in short supply in the state, but also to get the order, but also get the cash flow. But if you just said a few large manufacturers to the release of production capacity, these small vendors will no longer get orders, no order means no cash flow breakeven means can not guarantee to meet it, the consequences can only be closed. In the LED industry, the main production equipment, now the high-end equipment is still relatively lacking, at present can not meet the pace of foreign. But according to recent observations, domestic after verification, three have made verification, if the verification passes will enter the domestic market.

Third, to further focus on the dominant firm capacity. By the end of 2017, before the three mainland manufacturers capacity will be close to 60% of total capacity. So the expansion is not expansion, which has become a problem of vital importance expansion, so the expansion to become we must think about the problem, not the size of future is no industrial status, only is the expansion of fate. So the expansion is undoubtedly an answer, is a must, if you have a dream industry. So if you think so, we made a guess, opportunity is probably the last battle of the oligarchs in the past two years, in the next two years after the industry pattern may be very stable, backward manufacturers have no chance.

Manufacturers continue to expand production, the chip market after 2018? LED chip industry in 2013 to 2015 is the miserable situation, when prices fell cliff type, pile up in excess of requirement, in 2018 the market will also do that? We are very worried. We have some different views on the market in 2018, we are cautiously optimistic, there are several reasons: first, focus on the expansion of manufacturers, relatively rational expansion. Why? For the first, the government is now no subsidies, subsidies rarely, the expansion of money is relatively small, we have the strength. The second main causes of equipment to enhance the performance of the short term reached a bottleneck, such as the original machine is an old machine, a month performance is 100, a new performance is 200, but not now, all the old equipment. All manufacturers have experienced 2013 to 2015 a year, all manufacturers are calling for an orderly pattern of performance are very rational. Why say more rational? Just said, this round of expansion may have about 30% of capacity release, we calculated the top 15 enterprises downstream packaging packaging factory, they also have the appropriate expansion plans, the downstream of the expansion cycle