ISuppli:2005 DRAM plant profit will be halved to $4 billion

According to overseas news, market research firm iSuppli Nam analyst Hyung Kim said in a report released in 2005, after 2004, DRAM sales growth is expected to slow down, but the market development process and will not stop. 2005 will see the high-end DDR2 SDRAM into mobile computing, market mainstream upgrade from 256MB to 512MB. In addition, iSuppli also predicted that the global DRAM plant in 2005 operating profit will be reduced from $7 billion 400 million in 2004 to $4 billion.

ISuppli estimates that in 2005 the global DRAM sales of $27 billion, compared with 26 billion 300 million in 2004, a slight increase of 2.6%. But shipments will grow by 49%, higher than the 2004 growth rate of 40%. However, the average price in 2005 will decline 31% fear, not as good as in 2004 rose by 8%, which will not only affect the sales growth in 2005, will also reduce the profits of manufacturers.

ISuppli predicts that the global DRAM manufacturers in 2005 operating profit will be reduced to 4 billion from $7 billion 400 million in 2004, because of this, in 2004 the strong sales and make profits for the manufacturer and the rain descends the situation will change in 2005, winners and losers will be divided. In order to maintain profitability, DRAM plant in 2005 must be in standard DRAM, non-standard DRAM and other memory products to properly configure the output. For manufacturers, the successful management of the portfolio will be key to sustaining growth and profitability in 2005. Another key factor is how to manage the old DRAM 8 inch wafer fab, more important is how to upgrade technology and capacity.

According to the analysis of the existing cost structure, iSuppli is expected in 2005 Q3, 512MB DDR2 production costs will fall to two times the 256MB DDR, to achieve the same cost. But before that, 256MB DDR will continue to be the mainstream of the DRAM market.

A major factor in the process of determining the process of generational change is when Intel launched the support of DDR2 mobile PC core logic chipset. This chip industry group sincerely, expected this month should be asked the city. Although many people think that the chip group had a significant impact on the demand for DDR2 at the beginning of this year, but iSuppli said that before the DDR and DDR2 in Q3 costs tend to be consistent, DDR2 sales are still quite limited.

In the new chip group will be listed under the psychological expectations, computer OEM has begun to book more than DDR2 can be used for notebook computers SODIMMs. OEM plant believes that once Intel launched a new chipset, SODIMMs DDR supply shortage. ISuppli believes that if this demand is not achieved, DDR2 prices may fall sharply in Q2. For the DRAM industry, the impact of Intel's new chipset and the next supply and demand will be a very important topic in the first half of 2005.