The hurricane hit the U.S. global semiconductor market is affected by the downturn

Catalina hit the southern United States (Katrina) hurricane, the subsequent effect is just starting, as the North American consumer market demand and rapid effect of fear because of hurricane or, will impact the consumer electronics (CE) and personal computer (PC) system operators and upstream semiconductor manufacturers operating performance. According to Taiwan media reports, the southern United States from Catalina (Katrina) hurricane, the subsequent effect is just starting, as the North American consumer market demand and rapid effect of fear because of hurricane or, will impact the consumer electronics (CE) and personal computer (PC) system operators and upstream semiconductor manufacturers operating performance, including iSuppli, recently Semico Research, IC Insights and other market research institutions are invariably said, is likely to cut 2005 global semiconductor market forecast. Among them, iSuppli intended to cut the growth of 2 to 3 percentage points, IC Insights to the original estimate of 4% growth, slashed to a decline of 2%, Semico bluntly manufacturers of semiconductor excess inventory (Excess Inventory) the nightmare of fear will repeat. According to the website Semiconductor Reporter reports, the semiconductor industry and market research agencies are optimistic about the second half of the 2005 season was buying, and have been revised in 2005 the global semiconductor market growth forecast, hurricane Katrina hit Ju material at the end of August the southern United States, but the second half of the market started to blow up confidence, including iSuppli, Semico, IC, Insights and other market research agencies all said recently is likely to cut the global semiconductor market forecast.

Executive vice president iSuppli Greg Sheppard said the agency is likely to cut 2005 global semiconductor market growth of 2 to 3 percentage points from the previous forecast growth of 5.9%, down for the growth of 2.9 ~ 3.9%; IC Insights pointed out, may be the original estimate of global semiconductor market growth of 4%, down 2% decline.

In fact, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the revised second quarter just at the end of August (Q2) the rate of economic growth, from the original estimate of 3.4% down to 3.3%, has been reflected in consumer spending than expected conservative, now under the impact of the hurricane, fear will cause it pours, Q3 growth rate will be significantly lower than expected.

IC Insights analyst Brian Matas said the U.S. consumer confidence and actual consumer spending, affects the global semiconductor market boom, the world's 2 largest consumer market is North America and mainland area, the 2 largest market in 2005 economic growth rate estimates were 3.5% and 8%, however, hurricane effect impact, the U.S. market will also face substantial side effects the rise in oil prices, interest rates climbed Yang, and the psychology of second half of the actual consumer spending or influence, it was a warning for business and the upstream semiconductor manufacturers of consumer electronics, PC system etc..

Semico President Jim Feldhan pointed out that the consumer electronics business and PC system for the second half of the season, usually in the 10 to early November began to build stock, as the upstream semiconductor manufacturers earlier established inventory before the hurricane struck, the industry generally optimistic expectations for the season fermentation factors, but in the cyclone, once the United States at the end of the market purchasing atmosphere to conservative, in the consumer electronics and PC industry production effect, semiconductor manufacturers excess inventory nightmare fear will repeat.

As for the Taiwan factory for hurricane effect more than that for further observation, MediaTek (2454) spokesman Yu Mingduo said that in the medium and long terms, whether it will have shaken consumer confidence, must add observation; Sitronix (8016) chairman Mao Yingwen also pointed out that the company order visibility, operating conditions should be Q3 Q2 continues to grow, but the new general data and natural disasters, impact on the whole semiconductor industry, more observation.

However, Chong trade (6280) general manager Lin Zongde said that oil prices will still be the main factor affecting consumer confidence, whether the semiconductor output will be lowered, with the oil price may be greater than the degree of correlation. Feldhan also believes that if oil prices broke through the $80 level of 1 barrels, the joint caused by the "domino effect", the consumer confidence is a big blow, and in the dual effect, consumer electronics market will bear the brunt of fear is not as expected. As for the global semiconductor market in 2005, the magnitude of the decline, Semico said it would observe a period of time, the decision to reduce the amplitude.

Katrina after the hurricane, not only the capital of the state of Louisiana and New Orleans (New Orleans) a water flooding in the southern United States, Alabama and Florida, and the Mississippi coast have been hit hard, American petroleum refining industry recovery process is, as the future reconstruction project will be part of the industrial brewing business opportunities, like housing and other construction projects the foundation, power, water and telecommunications and other infrastructure construction, but for the consumer confidence hit caused by the shrinking of the market, probably will be difficult to avoid.