The interpretation and development of LED chip industry

In June 20th, Huatai Securities held the 2017 medium-term strategy will be "changelight dongmi Liu Wenhui share a little about the development trend of LED Industry Report at the meeting, Mr. Liu Wenhui's speech will have sorted out to readers.

Dry photo photoelectric secretaries Liu Wenhui

The report is divided into the following four aspects: first, a few LED's latest news, what are the implications?. Second is the domestic market, discussed the LED industry chain integration direction is what?. The third is to explore in the international market, the mainland China LED enterprises in the future to intervene in the global industrialization opportunities, where should the future development?. Fourth is a brief introduction of the dry photo photoelectric situation.

About domestic news. First, Sanan optoelectronics, April 2017 announced a joint venture with CREE, expand in high power level LED lighting package; in 2017 the company plans to add MOCVD of not less than 150 units. In second cases, HC semitek 2016 completion of the acquisition of Yunnan langene, trading volume 1 billion 80 million; in 2015 the company added MOCVD not less than 100. And Australia Shunchang.

International market news, the first about chip equipment, in April 2016, Fujian macro core investment fund announced the acquisition of the German veteran semiconductor equipment company Ace strong, and later due to government intervention, the acquisition was not completed. The second is the chip market, April 2017, three optical report shows that the company's turnover income exceeds Taiwan veteran leading EPISTAR chip. Third lighting applications, in 2015 March, Jinsha River has a lead fund, is the acquisition of PHILPS lighting business, and later also because of the U. S. government intervention, the acquisition is not completed. The second was a successful acquisition, which was successfully acquired by wood forest and IDG capital in March 5, 2017.

What's the meaning of these industry news? First of all, there are several major manufacturers in the expansion, in Chinese inside the LED industry over the past few years, both the production equipment, chip manufacturing, packaging, have achieved very great development, and has a higher position of international companies, competition ability has been greatly improved. Second, the mainland LED all aspects, especially raw materials, chip manufacturing, packaging areas, then in terms of energy saving, expansion and so on is how to do?. Third, and then down, the mainland LED manufacturers in the future how to compete with international manufacturers or cooperation, where to choose? Where is the way? Is there any hope?

The second part, the domestic market, according to statistics, now, domestic chip factory in the expansion of production capacity from 1 million 800 thousand in 2017, three tablets to reach 2 million 500 thousand, Huacan production capacity to reach 1 million 500 thousand.

To K465I equipment based, production capacity of 200 thousand pieces of the following manufacturers may be eliminated in the next two years, will release some of the products. The field of statistics we market chip equipment, estimated there are ten manufacturers, these manufacturers in addition to manufacturers outside there are some relatively small, relatively weak strength manufacturers, these manufacturers, production capacity of 200 thousand pieces, with the old equipment. Why are these vendors still alive? Because the industry is in short supply, can still get orders, but also get cash flow. But if you just said a few large manufacturers to the release of production capacity, these small vendors will no longer get orders, no order means no cash flow breakeven means can not guarantee to meet it, the consequences can only be closed. In the LED industry, the main production equipment, and now high-end equipment is still relatively lacking, the domestic still can not keep up with the pace of foreign countries. But according to recent observations, domestic after verification, three have made verification, if the verification passes will enter the domestic market.

Third, the production capacity is further concentrated to the advantage manufacturers. By the end of 2017, the capacity of the first three mainland manufacturers will be close to 60% of the total capacity. Therefore, expansion or non expansion, this has become a matter of life and death, so expanding the expansion of production has become a problem we must consider, there is no scale, the future there will be no industry status, only the fate of being expanded. So there is no doubt that expansion is an answer, that is, if you have industry dreams. So if you think so, we made a guess, opportunity is probably the last battle of the oligarchs in the past two years, in the next two years after the industry pattern may be very stable, backward manufacturers have no chance.

Vendors continue to expand, so after 2018, how about the chip market? LED chip industry in 2013 to 2015 is the miserable situation, when prices fell cliff type, pile up in excess of requirement, in 2018 the market will also do that? Everyone is worried. We have some different views, we are cautiously optimistic about the market in 2018, there are several reasons: first, expansion concentrated in large factories, expansion is relatively rational. Why? Because the first one, now the government has no subsidies, subsidies are few, the expansion of the money is relatively small, we do not have this strength. The second main causes of equipment to enhance the performance of the short term reached a bottleneck, such as the original machine is an old machine, a month performance is 100, a new performance is 200, but not now, all the old equipment. All manufacturers have experienced a miserable year from 2013 to 2015, and all manufacturers are calling for an orderly pattern, and they are all very rational. Why is it more rational? Just now, this round of expansion may have about 30% of the production capacity release, we have statistics on the downstream packaging enterprises before the 15th packaging factory, they also have the corresponding expansion plan, the downstream expansion week