2009LED lighting industry investment prospects analysis (I)

Part I: LED: the third revolution of the revolution in lighting

1 LED instead of incandescent lamp - a long way to go

Since the birth of the world's first semiconductor light-emitting diode in 1960s, LED lighting has long been known as the third revolution of human lighting due to its long life, energy saving, rich color, safety and environmental protection.

To reach the field of home lighting also need a long way to go, to achieve the third lighting revolution should first have the following lighting cost analysis. According to the analysis of the cost of LED lighting by Sandia National Laboratory of the United States, the investment cost is a cost to buy light bulbs (lumens per megabyte) allocated to the entire life cycle, operation cost refers to a light bulb at run time (cost per megabyte, this) cost of ownership is the investment cost and operation cost and that reflects a light bulb from the purchase and operation to complete the total cost of the entire life cycle. In 2010 LED has cost to $0.77 per million this, $1 per megabyte lumens will be lower than the fluorescent lamp, the cost of ownership of LED in 2020 will fall to $0.48 per megabyte lumens, only half of the fluorescent lamp.

Development of LED lighting technology is: luminous efficiency will be phased in from 25 LM / 2002 to 2007 w 75 LM / W, in 2010 and 2020 150 LM / W 200 LM / W, light will cost $200 from 2002 / kilolumen reduced to $20 in 2007 / 2010, kilolumen the $5 / thousand lumens and $2 in 2020 / kilolumen.

LED lighting began to penetrate into the incandescent lighting market in 2007, 2012 into the fluorescent lighting market, while a large number of incandescent and fluorescent lamps will be replaced in 2012 and in 2020.

Development strategy of semiconductor LED lighting in 2 major countries in the world

Obviously LED lighting production efficiency, all countries in the world in support of the government to accelerate the pace of LED to replace the traditional lighting lighting, the United States, Japan, EU, South Korea, Taiwan and China China government has formulated the corresponding development plan.

Development strategy of China semiconductor LED lighting

In order to save energy and realize the sustainable development of economy and society in China, the semiconductor lighting industry in June 3rd formulated the macro policy of energy conservation and emission reduction.

From the beginning of 2005 approved by the Ministry of science of Dalian, Xiamen, Shanghai, Nanchang, Shenzhen and other five semiconductor lighting industrial base, in 2007 and 2008 have been approved by Shijiazhuang, Yangzhou and other two semiconductor lighting industrial base, to give long-term support in policy, tax and capital.

The development strategy of the national semiconductor LED lighting in the world

Look at the table below 4

The second part of the semiconductor lighting industry chain, microstructure analysis

1 LED manufacturing process

The fabrication process of LED consists of the fabrication of the substrate, the epitaxial wafer growth, the middle chip, the electrode fabrication, the cutting and the test sorting, and the downstream product packaging.

International and domestic MOVCD equipment is basically imported, the main manufacturers for the United States VEECO company and the German AIXTRON company two.

2 epitaxial MOCVD process and microstructure

MOVCD full name Metal Organic Chemical Vapour Deposition.

The third part of the global LED Market Overview

1 LED market size

The global LED market size of $4 billion 700 million in 2004, Isuppli in 2008 is expected to increase to $6 billion 900 million, the average annual growth rate of about 13%, including high brightness and high brightness LED market average annual growth rate will reach 20%, to 2008 two together accounted for the overall market share of 2/3, then the high brightness LED alone the market scale will reach $1 billion 600 million.

In the high brightness LED products, GaN based chips due to high value-added products, countries (regions) to expand production capacity.

GaN chip production capacity mainly concentrated in Taiwan and Japan, but China and South Korea's rapid growth in production capacity, has become an important production area.

China's rapid increase in chip capacity changes, is the world's fastest growing GaN chip production capacity. Increase the chip production capacity of a hand from a few years ago to buy MOCVD equipment after installation and debugging, have been put into production, such as Shanghai Blaupunkt, Xiamen, Dalian Road, Shanghai three Ming blue; on the other hand due to manufacturers in Taiwan will be part of the chip production capacity transfer to the mainland or Taiwan relevant personnel to invest and build factories in the mainland, to speed up the domestic chip the improvement of production capacity, such as Xiamen Mingda photoelectric.

In addition, with the extension of Taiwan manufacturers epitaxial wafers exports to relax, some domestic manufacturers to adopt imported wafer to chip mass production, but also improve the yield of InGaN chips in a certain extent, such as Guangdong, Puguang, Silan azure.

China's blue chip production capacity has more than South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, after the third largest producer, the overall capacity of Taiwan's 34%.

2 Global LED market applications

The application of mobile phone market in 2004 accounted for more than half of the high brightness LED market, with the application of mobile phone market saturation, the growth rate will slow down the high brightness LED market, estimated growth rate reached 20%, the total market sales amounted to about $4 billion 700 million.

Emerging applications such as general lighting, car headlights, large screen LCD backlight, etc. will become the high brightness LED market growth