Chinese chip industry steady growth in 2008 production of 6 million

According to SEMI (international semiconductor equipment and Materials Association) published in July 10th reported that, despite the reduction of 11.3% in the 2005 global semiconductor equipment sales, but in 2006 the growth rate will remain close to 20%, to $38 billion 800 million. Since then, 2007 will be flat with 2006, in 2008 it is likely to grow again, is expected to reach $44 billion 100 million. The reason is that the new 12 inch Fab investment is still increasing, mainly in the Asia Pacific region of DRAM and flash. From the recent 10 years, the proportion of investment in various regions, China's Taiwan region to make up for the reduction of investment in japan. The current proportion of the United States accounted for about 30%, Japan and South Korea each about 20%, China's Taiwan is close to the latter.

2006 good start but unpredictable trend

Held annually at the west coast of the United States of America semiconductor equipment and Materials Exhibition (SemiconWest), known as the global semiconductor industry's biggest event. In addition to equipment manufacturers will try their best to display the most advanced equipment, in order to show off its comprehensive strength and status, the major global market research institutions will be in the first half of this year made a summary and forecast for the second half of the year and the future trend. Therefore, the industry attaches great importance to this exhibition.

From SemiconWest this year, the mainstream view is that the first half of 2006, the global semiconductor industry in good condition, compared with the same period last year the inventory problem exists, the first two quarters of this year's IC inventory in an acceptable range, the semiconductor industry including equipment and materials industry has increased greatly, thanks in the global market including mobile phone and computer terminal products have more than two digit growth.

However, to the year 6, in July the global semiconductor industry seems to have become the norm. For the second half of the trend, the various market analysis agencies are always said to show different views. Some forecasters have recently raised their forecasts for 2006, while others have reduced forecasts for PC and consumer spending.

The main mechanism for analysts forecast in 2006 IC market growth rate is 6%-11%. There are two independent research institutions Future Horizons and Semico forecast is still high, respectively, in 2006 IC market forecast to grow by 20% and around $17% in 2005 than in Research.

And in the past, analysts believe that the current market, there are many uncertain factors. More sober forecasts from iSuppli, the United States, the IC market growth forecast increased by 0.5%, from $7.4% to $7.9%. According to iSuppli estimates, in 2006 global IC sales will rise from $237 billion in 2005 to $255 billion 700 million.

However, iSuppli company also raised some concerns, although the global semiconductor manufacturing equipment demand continues to grow, but the semiconductor market is not a bright prospect. After the first quarter growth rate is higher than expected, the second half of this year, the market may be some weakness. The second half of the expected growth rate of 5% will be lower than the normal seasonal growth expectations, the reason may be from IC inventory growth, orders growth seems to be weakening.

The factors another worrying from between Intel and AMD chip giant, both sides of the price war caused by both situations, profit margins fell sharply so as to drive the global semiconductor stock index decline. Coupled with rumors that Apple's next generation of high capacity 10-12GB iPod launch delay, at least to the hot hot NAND flash market cooling, which also caused some analysts to join the ranks of pessimists.

DuPont DavidMiller said that in the short term in 2006 seems to have very strong semiconductor growth momentum, but already see the mobile phone market is slowing, especially in Asia, which Chinese slow down faster than previously expected.

SGCowen view is that from 2007 the prospect of semiconductor equipment industry can see some bad news, such as TSMC's fourth quarter order has been decreased 5%-10%. This shows that the global industry has been the existence of slow signal.

Handelsbanken in a recently published report predicts that in 2006 the semiconductor market growth of 5% in 2005, down from its previous forecast of 6%, the investment bank lowered the forecast due to the slowdown in global PC industry development.

Also not everyone is so pessimistic. The semiconductor industry association (SIA) recently raised its forecast for 2006 global semiconductor sales forecast, semiconductor sales to grow 9.8% this year to $249 billion, while the previous forecast is increased by 7.9% to $245 billion. SIA said that the main reason for the increase is forecast for the mobile phone industry demand for chips better than expected. SIA adjusted forecasts for 2006 -2009 semiconductor sales in the long-term view is more optimistic. SIA said that in 2007 the semiconductor industry will grow by 11% in 2008, an increase of 12% in the year to 2009, an increase of 4%.

The same global semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) also raised its forecast for the global semiconductor market. According to its spring forecast, the global IC market is expected to grow by 10.1% in 2006 to $250 billion. Meanwhile, WSTS forecast 2007 global semiconductor industry growth rate will rise to 11% in 2008 to 12.8%.

China semiconductor industry has become the focus of

Semiconductor manufacturers held in Semicon West summit, application materials (Applied Materials), CEO Mike Splinter said, thanks to government investment and policy support, Chinese semiconductor industry developed rapidly, in the next few years with the development of Technology