Data analysis: OLED market showing a ray of dawn

As an organic light emitting diode (OLED) display manufacturers are not easy. In essence, it is an alternative to liquid crystal display (LCD), which is an endurance race because of the full scope of the product life cycle in the market.

ISuppli believes that due to the LCD is still the dominant technology in the field of display, this will be a close match for a period of time. Gratifying news is the active matrix OLED (AMOLED) in the first quarter of 2007, a large number of final entry into the market, and is expected to increase production this year.

Early products included from Samsung 4.3 inch and 14.1 inch Widescreen QVGA from AMOLED (Chi Mei, CMO ELectroluminescence) 25 inch AMOLED panel, as well as from the Toshiba Matsushita display company (TMD) the thickness of 0.88mm 3.5 inch QVGA. Samsung SDI will be the first mass production in January 2007 AMOLED, TPO has also developed a timetable for the company's AMOLED production line for mobile phones in 2007. In the next two years, these early products should help to make the future market players in the main AMOLED stand out.

At stake is the potential for billions of dollars in the display market, as well as current and future mobile / portable consumer electronics applications this huge market enters the threshold, iSuppli predicts that the OLED market will be 30.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) increased from $615 million in 2006 to $3 billion 100 million in 2012.

Figure: full OLED revenue forecast for 2004 - 2012 ($million)

However, the OLED unit growth will be the most compelling, it will be 25% CAGR from 2006 to surge in the number of 312 million 700 thousand in 2012 to 97 million. There is no doubt that this is a potential growth, as well as to maintain the company's active participation in OLED display technology development opportunities, although there may not be profitable for many years.

Active matrix

But that doesn't mean that everyone is in the marathon race. In fact, despite the strong development of AMOLED are many companies with initial passive matrix OLED (PMOLED) Tohoku Pioneer manufacturers have chosen not to engage in research and development of AMOLED, Sanyo Kodak Pioneer-Sharp-SEL (ELD) and the joint venture joint venture company has to give up, and AU Optronics (AUO) has completely stopped its AMOLED business. In addition, LG electronics OLED business has been merged into the LG.Philips LCD small display sector, but also found itself in a dilemma.

In order to succeed, at the same time, in the rapid development of the LCD market to make a difference, iSuppli believes that AMOLED makers must aim at specific applications, so that these companies can give support to a large and stable customer. Because there is no obvious application of existing AMOLED technology, these companies should be based on their own strength, decided to apply for a AMOLED application and stick to the end. This is one of the clear ways to find stable, large companies that can help clear the way to win at least one seat in the thin film transistor LCD (TFT-LCD) market.

But don't expect soon to see a large number of products in the market, this is because the details of the development process, the establishment of large-scale production will slow down AMOLED, mainly because of the problem of life time is short, low efficiency and lack of standard materials and other production display process, these problems make the ratio of the current technology more difficult. With the progress of the production process, iSuppli is expected, there may be a breakthrough in innovation, and then, it will help to further promote the development of this process. If there is no breakthrough, market growth will be blocked. Given that many of these problems are currently operational issues, rather than technical ones, only a few of the most compelling technical improvements could prompt the AMOLED market.

Jennifer Colegrove

Senior analyst with iSuppli display technology and strategy

Jcolegrove@isuppli.com

Source: EE