Financial turmoil will end the profits of the polysilicon industry feast

From the peak of 400 U.S. dollars / kg to the current $100 / kg, the financial crisis ahead of the end of the polysilicon industry profiteering feast. The time has come to reshuffle the industry, and finally left the business is likely to only 3 to 5. The Great Wall securities analyst Zhang Lin believes that the new energy industry analyst. Previously, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Deputy Secretary General of the silicon industry He Yunping statistics, China's annual investment of more than 600 industrial silicon enterprises, is still in the production of industrial silicon enterprises more than 200. If the fact is really Zhang Linyan, which means there will be hundreds of silicon industry enterprises were eliminated, nearly one hundred billion yuan investment will evaporate".

Price winter raid

Since entering in twenty-first Century, strong demand and huge profits to stimulate the rapid expansion of polysilicon industry. Polysilicon spot prices rose 10 times in the past 7 years, the peak profit margin of more than 800%. But the industry's winter is too unexpected. Polysilicon prices fell very suddenly, since entering in October, two months after the price plummeted more than 40%. "The Canadian company president Qu Xiaohua said. The sudden arrival of the industry winter, so that the irrational structure of the industry increasingly obvious. At present, China's polysilicon production enterprises rely on imports of raw materials 90%, due to the domestic solar energy production companies simply can not digest the domestic production capacity of polysilicon production enterprises also more than 90%. Affected by the financial crisis, Europe and the United States began to shrink the market and seek to protect the industry, the price is inevitable, China's polysilicon production enterprises bear the brunt.

Currently, Qu Xiaohua has taken a slowdown in expansion, adjust the market structure, strict control of cash flow and other measures to deal with the risk: in the winter, the fight is a cash flow, is the ability to survive. Cash flow has good support for large enterprises and listed companies, the probability of survival will be greater. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 10 listed companies to invest in polysilicon projects, has announced a total investment of nearly $6 billion, with a total investment of up to about 30000000000 yuan. Many listed companies are from completely unrelated industries "jumped" polysilicon industry, such as feed Tongwei, Jiangsu sunshine in wool.

In mid August, Ping An Securities released polysilicon market outlook that, by 2010, the global supply and demand of polysilicon will be excess, polysilicon long single price will be less than $100 / kg. With the deterioration of the global economic situation, industry analysts expect polysilicon prices may return to $40 / kg.

The new technology of dogged

At the beginning of December, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) research team announced that they found the thin film solar cell conversion efficiency of 50%, and has passed the laboratory test. In the new method, the use of silicon is only 1% of the current product.

Solar power generation technology bottleneck is the largest film conversion rate is low, if the United States new technology in industry can be proved to be feasible, will quickly replace the polysilicon pattern, and will lead to fundamental changes in industry. He Yunping said. For solar power generation technology in crystal silicon solar cell and thin film batteries dispute, risk investment institutions more sensitive (VC) have made their choice --2008 year in May, the British investment and Hongkong Wei Jun investment fund will shun large equity holdings all transferred to the Wuxi Suntech (NYSE:STP), cash out. Shunda holdings was founded in 2003, its main business is the production of polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon slice, AB and Wei Jun 2006 shares, betting Shunda holdings listed, but the arrival of the financial crisis to become listed luxury, the rise of thin-film solar power technology and the decisive exit for venture capitalists.

At the same time, in the field of thin-film power generation, venture capital began to gather. In November 2008, Intel investment and international finance company has invested in the production of thin-film solar cells in Shenzhen, Hebei science and technology innovation and solar energy. Earlier in July 2008, Lenovo also invested in the production of thin-film solar cell production in Zhejiang advanced solar.

Venture capital investment in the polysilicon industry at the same time, is to help the opponent strong, polysilicon prospects worrying.

Hanging policy yourselves"

At present, the price has become the biggest bottleneck restricting the development of solar energy. According to estimates, the polysilicon price of $300 per kilogram, polysilicon PV module cost about $4.39, corresponding to each of the power generation cost is 4.38 yuan; if the polysilicon price of $100 per kilogram, the generating cost is 2.18 yuan per kWh, is still far higher than the current domestic thermal power tariff.

In order to promote solar power generation, the European Union and the United States have introduced a subsidy policy, which is considered to be the fundamental way to solar power industry, seek policy support has also been a number of investment companies as the breakthrough point of polysilicon. In December 6th, Chinese renewable energy association director Shi Dinghuan in "Shenzhen renewable energy technology and investment international seminar" revealed that the National Energy Bureau of the national development and Reform Commission, is the study of photovoltaic power generation policy support and subsidies, in accordance with the price of about 4 yuan to buy. If this policy is introduced, the polysilicon industry is undoubtedly a major positive.

But the reporter asked the relevant departments of the national development and Reform Commission, the news, did not get a positive response. Many industry experts also said that did not hear the specific policy trends. Now it seems that the policy pie is also hanging in the air, see more touch.

We are still very optimistic about the prospects for solar power applications. To some extent, the development of the industry is now stepping into the wrong, in fact, solar power is not