From 7 to 60, and over chip manufacturing capacity argument

Two global semiconductor research institutions are Chinese for future 3 years the number of chip production line argument.

SemiconWest (sponsored by the global semiconductor equipment and materials international Semi exhibition) the opening press conference, SEMI global president and CEO Stanley Meyers stressed that the next three years, China, will build 20 new chip production line.

Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) President George Skelis does not agree with this view. He said that China is unlikely to build so many new factories in three years, at most can see between 10 to 15, and the 20 to 25 new plants will probably be a global target.

"A factory can hold multiple production lines. They may blur the difference." Semiconductor industry research experts Mo Dakang said that if the basis of the international semiconductor industry research institutions iSuppli data projections, the next three years, the continent needs only 7 inches of production line is enough to fill the demand for 8.

Article 20, Article 30, Article 60

Chinese the next three years to build 20 new chip production line, not from Stanley Myers himself, but from a China semiconductor equipment and Materials Market Research Report released at the beginning of the month the United States SEMI6.

In the above report, SEMI is expected in the next three years (2005 ~2008), China will build a new production line of the 20 chips, but also to enhance the speed of China's mainland chip production will be more than all other countries.

The opinion of the SEMI report seems to have earlier public opinion support. In March 16th SEMICHINA2005 Shanghai trade fair, Wang Ningguo, President of the Asian American doctor of applied materials, optimistically predicted that the next three years, China will build 30 Chinese chip factory, most of them will use the mature process of 0.25 micron and 0.13 micron. Data from the applied materials company said that in 2004 China's semiconductor market is about $24 billion, while domestic manufacturers self-sufficiency rate of less than 25%.

This is mainly due to the real development of China's chip industry is relatively late, lack of technology, lack of products. Therefore, although China is already the world's second largest chip consumer market, but the local market by foreign companies occupy 90%. Only in 2004, China imported $about 60000000000 of chip products." Prior to this, Professor Ma Qiyuan, chairman of the era of venture capital, said to reporters.

For the next three years, the number of mainland chip production line, Ma Qiyuan did not predict, he is more accustomed to talk from the perspective of the production line. "If according to the current $60 billion of imports, by 2008, China takes about nearly 80 production lines, to fill the gaps in the market (capacity on the basis of the 8 inch line), at present, the construction of the only more than 20, which means the difference of more than and 60." He said.

The famous foreign magazine InformationNetwork even claimed that, given China's entire IC consumer demand continues to grow higher than the domestic chip production, by the end of 2006, China is expected to build 5 new 300mm plant.

However, compared with IDC's forecast, all these data are very optimistic. IDC company released a report earlier this year pointed out that in 2008, China's semiconductor consumption will be only $45 billion.

7 lines of 8 inches is enough?

The next three to four years, the mainland will only need to be able to achieve production capacity of 7 inches of production line of 8, the possibility of building a small plant is not 20." Mo Dakang said.

Mo Dakang's predictions are based on data from the International Semiconductor Industry Research Institute iSuppli. ISuppli believes that if the average annual growth rate of 10.3% (CAGR) to calculate, in 2005, China's semiconductor industry sales of $2 billion 490 million in 2008 was $3 billion 360 million in 2009 to $3 billion 760 million.

Mo Dakang said that based on the above data, the difference between 2004 and 2009 was about $1 billion 450 million. Assuming that this part of the incremental completion of the new chip production line (in fact, the existing chip production line also has a capacity expansion), at most, only 7 of the 8 inch production line will be able to achieve capacity.

Although China's IC industry self-sufficiency rate of less than 20%, the Chinese market is not the Chinese market, but the next three years, the gap in demand is not the basis of the number of chip production line." Mo Dakang believes that the main bottleneck in the development of China's semiconductor industry - the capital is almost 20 factories to become mirage.

He said that the construction of a new 8 inch chip production line, the monthly production capacity of 20 thousand ~3 million, at least $1 billion investment. If used, the amount of funds can be reduced to $150 million. Relative to a 6 inch chip production line (certainly the old equipment), the investment needs at least $30 million. If it is 12 inch chip production line, the investment should be more than $1 billion 500 million.

"Of course, you can borrow money from banks or IPO to obtain funds, but domestic enterprises have its particularity." Mo Dakang said that in the A-share market, the amount of financing is too small, only 100 million yuan ~2 billion yuan, can be described as a drop in the bucket of A. Such as Hongkong or the U.S. stock market, it is more difficult. Moreover, the semiconductor industry outside the mainland of the economic and social Chinese still do not understand, such as the core in the company and Wuxi, has been on the market, but the stock trend is not optimistic.

China's chip manufacturing industry is overrated?

The industry is too high to estimate the speed of China's chip manufacturing industry." TienWu, President of the United States, Shanghai advanced semiconductor, believes that the reason why the Chinese chip manufacturing will overestimate the value of the semiconductor industry is mainly underestimated.

TienWu said that some of the chip production