International Strategic observation: Civil War haze over Iraq

Iraqi police said 20 days, the Iraqi capital Baghdad, 280 kilometers north of the city of Scher from the evening of 19 two Dutch act type bomb explosion caused more than and 70 casualties. This shows that the security situation in Iraq is not optimistic. The high level meeting on Iraq held the Secretary General of the United Nations in southern Changan during the day before the sixty-first session of the General Assembly meeting warned that if the violence continues, Iraq is in danger of civil war. With the Iraq conflict and explosion incident, whether afflicting Iraq will collapse into civil war once again become the focus of attention.

Sectarian conflict intensified

In February this year, the Iraqi Shiite religious shrine Ali Hardy mosque was attacked, the outbreak of sectarian conflict in iraq. Between Shia and Sunni retaliatory killings intensified, causing casualties and damage to the security situation in Iraq has greatly exceeded the anti American anti-government armed attacks, the Iraqi government has become a thorny issue to be solved.

According to the Iraqi Ministry of health statistics, in July the country of Iraq about 3500 deaths, since the outbreak of the war of 2003 monthly death toll record, there are about 1800 people died in the violence only Baghdad area, most of them died of sectarian violence. In August, the death toll has decreased, but there are still 1500 people died in baghdad. Since entering in September, the Iraqi sectarian conflict signs of deterioration. Last week, nearly 200 dead bodies were found in a few days in Baghdad, and most of the victims died in sectarian clashes. It is observed that the gunfire and explosions in Baghdad in the last two days have been more frequent than ever before.

In the face of a series of bloody events, many Iraqi and American officials have begun to worry that sectarian violence will turn into a terrible civil war. Some people think that Iraq has been in a "low intensity civil war". Earlier this month, The Pentagon said in a report, the main conflict in Iraq has been the first American and anti American armed struggle into sectarian conflict, which creates conditions for the outbreak of the civil war.

Analysts believe that Iraq has already had some elements of the outbreak of the civil war, including both sides have armed opposition, the existence of conflicts of interest, civil strife evolved into a civil war between the first line.

Safety measures bear fruit

In order to solve the growing sectarian conflict, the U.S. military in Iraq and the Iraqi government has taken a series of military and political measures, but with little success.

Since the beginning of August, the U.S. military and Iraqi security forces launched a large-scale military action is the most serious sectarian conflict in Baghdad, including military force, increase patrols, blockade of violence in high incidence area and check possession of weapons etc.. Recently, the U.S. military and the Iraqi government plans to build a seat belt around Baghdad to control access to vehicles and personnel. At the same time the military action, the Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki actively promote national reconciliation plan, held a tribal leaders meeting, calling for a joint national reconciliation process.

Analysts here pointed out that both sides have their own sectarian armed groups, there is resistance to the occupation of the nationalist Sunni armed forces loyal to Sadam, a former regime military and intelligence officials, and armed Shiite militia are various, including loyal to radical Shiite cleric Al-sadr of the "Mahdi army" and under the Iraqi Islamic supreme Council of the revolution "of Baader's brigade". These armed factions and organizations involved in the killings, the Iraqi government and internal political parties and factions are closely linked. In this case, a joint military action to achieve tangible results will be not at all surprising.

Avoid the way of the Civil War

Once the outbreak of the civil war in Iraq, Iraq and the entire Middle East, will be a huge disaster. How to lead Iraq out of the civil war haze, the Iraqi government's top priority.

Some analysts believe that, first of all to speed up the construction of Iraqi security forces. Currently, the number of Iraqi security forces is about 230 thousand. With the enhancement of the combat effectiveness of the armed forces, the Iraqi government will be able to gradually assume independent domestic security tasks, and ultimately the "Iraqi rule Iraq political goals.

Secondly, we should speed up the reconstruction of Iraq's economy and improve people's lives. After the Iraq war, Iraq's economic reconstruction process has always been at a standstill. At present, the unemployment rate of up to 60% in Iraq, inflation, soaring prices, the average family can barely live, people discontent diffuse. Therefore, it is of great importance to improve people's living standards and enhance public trust and support for the government.

In addition, we should balance the interests of the parties to achieve national reconciliation. Although violence is an unavoidable factor in the process of political reshuffle in Iraq, it is possible to achieve peaceful coexistence under the condition that the interests of all parties are relatively balanced. At present, with the composition of the new Iraqi government, factions have been basically determined the division. How to balance the interests of all parties in a limited range, the key to avoid conflicts intensified. (