LED industry to benefit from the lighting market supply and demand pattern into the best history

Introduction: since last year, LED industry boom began to pick up a few years ago, 5W LED lamp price is 3-4 times the same brightness, energy-saving lamps in recent years however, the upstream chip prices fell by about 30% annually to 2013 cost heavy, LED terminal products and energy-saving lamps prices basically unchanged, the industry is expected to enter a comprehensive alternative to the traditional LED stage lighting products.

The LED industry is expected to benefit from the lighting market start is ushering in the best of times in history, and has entered the three year long cycle and high prosperity; mainland enterprises benefit from technology, cost and supporting the comprehensive advantages will enjoy the global LED manufacturing chain transfer premium.

Supply and demand pattern into the best history

1) 2014 industry supply / demand ratio of only 1.04 (1.1 for safe water level), close to the highest level in the history of the industry in 2010;

2) significantly reduced supply side: CSA statistics, by the end of 2013 the total number of domestic MOCVD units in, compared with an increase of only about 110 units in 2012, far below the industry growth and downstream application demand growth. With the substantial export subsidies, the future expansion will be more rational;

3) the demand side rapid volume: LED lighting market has entered the 15% penetration period of rapid growth, leading enterprises as an example, 2014 new orders grew more than 2 times the industry average growth rate, can also be read; with LED lighting large cycle starts, expected this round of boom will continue for a long time. Profitability is expected to improve: the upper reaches of the structural price is expected to decline in the downstream price range will narrow.

LED industry to benefit from the lighting market supply and demand pattern into the best history

Chain research shows that by the end of 2013 to the end of May 2014, less than the chip price decline of 3%, far better than market expectations of 10%, is expected to usher in a structural increase rate about; in the long run, with the wafer switch to the mainstream size 4 inch, chip size and light efficiency continued to improve, profitability is expected to continue to optimize the chip. After the application of downstream products to reduce the price of the market process, has been reduced to close to the price of energy-saving lamps, the subsequent price space is limited. The research shows that the 3WLED lamp for nearly a year drop of 33% to 2.9 dollars, only the same energy-saving lamp 1.5 times; while the domestic competitive price is close to the price of energy-saving lamps; in the long term, with the intelligent, light adjustable ratio increases, the added value is expected to increase by end.

2014 LED throughout the year in the market, in the light volume, the rapid growth of demand in the background, many companies will usher in a double turning point of revenue and profit margins. From the investigation of the industry chain, this year, many LED companies have mergers and acquisitions and refinancing needs, due to the two or three line LED corporate profit base is generally not high, so the corresponding performance elasticity is very large. And continuously enhance the competitiveness of enterprises in Chinese, vast domestic market, the prospect of a bright background, Ping An believes the market underestimates the ascension of this round of LED home lighting penetration rate for the industry as a whole to pull the elastic. LED general lighting demand will be deterministic explosive growth, and MOCVD machine is no longer difficult to repeat the previous high investment and high growth, LED chip supply and demand in the continuous improvement.