LED into oversupply dilemma, the end of the first quarter of 2009 has the opportunity to fall

Since the second half of 2008, the LED industry is small and medium size backlight demand sharp recession, in the fourth quarter to pile up in excess of requirement dilemma, the situation has not improved, the economy continues to deteriorate, the remaining half of the capacity utilization rate, number of upstream epitaxial plant has started to lose money. The overall LED downstream related applications such as mobile phone backlight, large key light, small and medium size backlight demand is very weak, the manufacturers generally bearish in 2009 first quarter, estimated overall revenue and gross margin will continue to decline, until the end of the first quarter will have a chance at the end.

The financial and economic downturn, LED industry is not much good news, but the new LED applications continue to be developed, as long as the downturn in the winter in the past, competitive LED industry recovery momentum is expected to be better than other industries. In recent years, LED is regarded as the new trillion industry in the future, because of the huge business opportunities, facing many new entrants, the rapid expansion of market profits increasingly difficult, pile up in excess of requirement, LED industry in the winter of 2008 even than other industries to the early market has started to worry about whether LED will embark on DRAM's footsteps. Dramexchange chairman Liu Jionglang said that many industries including DRAM, solar energy, automobile, television and so on, are facing the same problem, the future is not optimistic, but not pessimistic, believe such as Darwin's theory of evolution said the "survival of the fittest". In addition to the technical advantages of LED industry efforts, horizontal or vertical integration is also the direction of development.

Previously, LED more than 50% applications in the mobile phone and other consumer goods, mobile phone is closely linked with the ups and downs of the market, is expected to 2009, LED application will greatly increase the proportion of the liquid crystal display, first is the current hot netbook, NB backlight, the brand notebook have taken large LED as the backlight source in 2009, the permeability of at least 35%, billion light (2393) will be the first to benefit from the manufacturers.

The industry said that the future of LED growth momentum will come from the LCD TV and lighting in two major areas, in the LCD TV, the Samsung most active development and promotion of the product, once the successful opening of demand, the LED boom has the opportunity to end early winter, Taiwan dragon head epitaxial crystal power plant (2448) will is the biggest beneficiaries. As for the lighting field, the future business potential larger, although the "general" product specifications and lighting technology is not mature, the market is still at the initial stage of development, but the "special" lighting products diversification, high added value, let Taiwan LED downstream packaging application vendors to find a lot of new business opportunities. Baihong (3031) Street, Huaxing (6164) frozen light, Wang Qi (6168) commercial lighting, have the opportunity to develop new applications with the resistance to cold winter. According to the prediction of LED epitaxial plant upstream in the low capacity utilization of Yongfeng gold research, mix and match of inventory liquidation case, gross margin performance for the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009 before the various manufacturers are still under repair space, and do not rule out the negative gross interest rate, estimated in 2009 second quarter, inventory level with the application of new low gross margin gradually stabilized, have the opportunity to self bottoming out.