LED lighting era when can really come? (map)

LED lighting is a hot topic, more optimistic about the future of the market, have been involved in, reviews, most still do not want to miss the golden opportunity. How to look at this market, predict the timing of the arrival of LED lighting, then talk about their views.

Current energy-saving lamps light efficiency in 80LM/W, and LED are basically similar, but also refers to the single source part, coupled with the driving part and temperature conditions has not reached the level of 80LM/W.

LED lighting era come?

LED lighting for the current energy is unfounded, no matter how you design can afford a number of data measuring instrument. Of course, I can not say that can not use LED, the design of LED street lamp is also a lot of application cases, but it must be pointed out that at this stage is to say that LED street lighting is a big lie! There is no mistake in the application, we have the responsibility to guide the correct entry of new friends, misled by our responsibility!

Is mainly three kinds of personnel, such talk, misleading:

Is a, many "honor ring" package to see is people in high positions, with the theoretical data to be fabricated, published. If these people as certain corporate leadership, interest will make him "deflowered".

Is two, LED, LED and LED product sales staff, intentional fraud, spreading incorrect information. But in all walks of life. Because LED people are not very understanding of the actual situation, the most misleading.

Three is true, do not understand LED, followed by booing. These people are often very stubborn, will not easily admit their own mistakes in judgment.

Estimated arrival time LED lighting

LED lighting arrival time depends on the price of LED, in other words depends on the speed and cut price LED. LED lighting applications, or the replacement of energy-saving lamps, depending on the speed of the development of W/LM brightness.

LED lighting era come?

Now LED per W/LM value and energy-saving lighting current development has been quite, assuming the LED brightness value stop in the development, the price is quite, LED lighting will coexist with the current energy-saving lamps, of course, this may be small. I personally started to contact the high brightness white LED in 2002, was used in the detection of skin CMOS lens front light source, 3mm plug-in LED, the price is 10 yuan / only, at present is only 0.6 yuan LED, the price has dropped 17 times in 6 years. 2006 purchase of a group of 1WLED, 60LM price is 24 yuan, currently only the appearance of $4, down three times in the past 6.

LED price will speed up, if the energy-saving lamps reach quite the price level, LED needs to be reduced to 1 yuan /W, this is the basic conditions for the lighting market. According to the current price forecast will be reduced to 1 yuan /W/60LM level in the next three years.

If LED per W/LM value of rapid development, such as 150LM/W or higher, the cost is not higher than the current number of lamps. The current energy-saving lamps will provoke fatal disaster. The proportion was significantly reduced, complete removal is not possible, focus on high power W number (such as hundreds of W) point source LED lighting can not be achieved.

150LM/W currently in the laboratory, estimated two years can be commercialized, then two years before the big area of commercial lighting. Real energy conservation and policy will accelerate the popularity, but at least 5 years. Don't worry about the price, the price is not you I can decide, is the market needs this process. LED lighting trend, but from the price point of view to time in the short term will not have good market results, even if you try to get the price is "fur". From the point of view of time, now of LED lighting needs more investment, long incubation period.

Themanufacturersrecommend temporarily do not use LED lighting as the main industry, as the research strategy in the future, will not cost as the main consideration, high level of cultivating high level products. The 5mmLED plug-in used as lighting is only over the recommendations as soon as possible to give up, the old package is designed for light, poor cooling conditions, serious decay. Packaging consumes too much material, seriously hindering future price reduction plans.