LED lighting market forecast 2009-2011

2008 LED market growth slowed

According to CCID Consulting China LED market tracking research, in 2008 the total size of China's LED market reached 18 billion 540 million yuan, an increase of 8.3%. Affected by the global financial crisis, especially in the fourth quarter of 2008, LED product prices fell significantly reduced the number of orders, resulting in a significant slowdown in growth. But in the long run, LED market potential is still very large.

Different characteristics of the upstream and downstream industry chain

LED upstream industry, including raw materials and substrates, materials, such as extension of the middle reaches of the chip, including chip production, chip cutting, testing and other aspects of the downstream packaging, including applications, etc.. Due to the complexity of the process and technology, the characteristics of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the core elements, different investment strategies.

Upstream industry barriers to entry are very high, the technology is successful, the investment scale is large; the middle reaches of the industrial technology is more difficult, the investment intensity is larger; the downstream industry application product diversification, the investment is small, the domestic enterprise is more.

In the upper reaches of the product and business model of a single, but very high barriers to entry, uncertainty, technology and capital is its core elements; middle products have certain technical content, fine but mainly depends on the capital strength and management; downstream applications are diverse, more dependent on the enterprise's operation and management quality, comprehensive ability. Cost, brand and channel is more important.

Opportunities and challenges of China's LED industry

The biggest challenge for the development of China's LED industry is the imbalance of industrial structure caused by the lack of core technology and patent of LED in china. China's vast market space, and actively look forward to support policies, structural opportunities for industrial and technological progress, such as China's LED industry is a big opportunity to become bigger and stronger.

Opportunity challenge

Huge domestic market potential

In the process of rapid development, there are opportunities to catch up from behind

Government support policy

Rapid advances in technology will bring down prices, the existence of structural industry opportunities

Industrial chain low-end overcapacity

Core technology, patents are controlled by five vendors

Small scale domestic enterprises

Higher cost

Imbalance of industrial structure

LED lighting market trend analysis and forecast

From a policy perspective, the state through the establishment of national semiconductor lighting engineering research and development and industrial alliances, the introduction of relevant financial support measures, policies and regulations to support the development of LED lighting industry. 2007, the Ministry of finance, the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "efficient lighting products to promote financial subsidies Interim Measures", the State adopts indirect subsidies to promote efficient lighting products. 2008, the electronic information industry restructuring and revitalization plan clearly supports the development of China's LED industry. Local governments for the specific circumstances of the local government has also issued a corresponding LED support policies. Fujian Province issued "opinions to promote LED and solar photovoltaic industry development in Fujian province (2007-2010 years)", Shenzhen City, the relevant departments in the formulation of "LED industry development planning of Shenzhen city (2009-2015)", "Shenzhen city to promote energy-efficient LED lighting products demonstration project implementation plan", "Shenzhen city public industry LED technical service platform construction plan" etc.. Because LED lighting has the advantages of energy saving, environmental protection, long life and other advantages, the future of the country and the local government will continue to introduce the corresponding policies and regulations to support the development of the industry, therefore, LED lighting market will usher in new opportunities.

From a technical point of view, LED luminous efficiency continues to break through the limitations of traditional light sources, LED lighting industry to provide technical assurance. According to the latest reports, power LED luminous efficiency has reached ~120lm/W, is expected in the next 3-5 years is expected to reach ~200lm/W. We can see that in each type of light, luminous efficiency of power LED most improved performance, power performance of LED products is the development potential is very outstanding, the U.S. Department of energy (DOE) solid state lighting development roadmap in 2008 to develop a good illustration of this point. U.S. energy sector in 2002, in 2006, in the light of the white LED luminous efficiency and development plans to amend. In accordance with the roadmap developed in 2002 DOE, in 2012, 1 mm2 LED luminous efficiency will reach 150lm/W, luminous flux 1000lm (drive current of 2A). At this time the planning has not been separated from the cold and warm white, so in 2006 the development plan was adjusted. But the pace of development of white LED significantly exceeded the expectations of DOE, launched in 2008, the revised plan, in the performance of cold white and warm white light compared with the program in 2006 have been improved. With the LED technology continues to break through, the cost continues to decline, LED market potential will be released rapidly.

From the perspective of market demand, LED on the traditional lighting market will greatly stimulate the substitution effect of LED lighting market demand. According to China's national green lighting project to promote the special survey project office, China lighting electricity annually in more than 300 billion degrees, such as the use of LED to replace, not only means that the electricity saving 1/3 lighting, equivalent to a total investment of more than 200 billion yuan of annual generating capacity of the three Gorges project, also means that the substitution effect of LED the traditional light will bring huge market demand for the LED industry.

In short, China LED lighting industry is facing a hitherto unknown policy opportunity, space technology upgrade than expected, the huge market potential, development prospects, but China can seize LED industry development opportunities, bigger and stronger, after all rely on their own. Independent innovation