LED upstream upstream industry

With the decline in the cost of manufacturing and luminous efficiency and luminous decay technology to break through the bottleneck, LED (semiconductor light source) have more advantages, which fully replace traditional light source is not far away. But because of technical limitation, LED industry by the downstream part of the upstream product differences, high technical difficulty, while the downstream packaging and application of low barriers to entry, the lack of core technology, enterprises can only China industry gathered in the end. Despite the advantages of low-cost, China quickly became the world's LED packaging base, but the competitive position is fragile. The fourth quarter of 2008, LED product prices, orders decreased by half, a lot of industrial enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and other areas gathered out, and the leading enterprise combination and the traditional lighting industry giants are heavily involved, will make the enterprises more difficult to establish the core advantage of far is not an easy thing. Analysis shows that the LED downstream trends are different, and for different industry characteristics, investment strategies should be different.

The discussion of the foreground of the LED industry is an old saying, because of its long life, low energy consumption, small volume, quick response, low temperature and low pollution, the application field is very broad. The next year the Chinese preliminary calculation, power generation LED lighting electricity savings equivalent to the Three Gorges power station throughout the year, at the same time can be reduced to 80 million tons CO2, 650 thousand tons SO2 and 320 thousand tons of NO2 emissions, known as the "history of lighting revolution" is not too much. The rapid development of semiconductor lighting. Statistics show that since the birth of the last century in 60s, every ten years, LED costs decreased by ten times and luminous efficiency increased by a factor of ten. And technical progress is always beyond market expectations. In 2006, Japan's Nichia (Nichia) to achieve the luminous efficiency of 150 Lm/W, than the United States Association of optoelectronics industry development (OIDA) set a target of 6 years earlier. A few years ago the market in 2010 in order to commercialize the watt level single lamp, in the year 2006 has entered the commercial, is now quite popular. China's LED industry started in the 80s of last century, has gone through a number of stages, such as imported chip packaging, import epitaxial wafer packaging, homemade materials and devices. After entering in twenty-first Century, environmental protection and energy conservation has become a hot market, LED industry has begun to heat up. The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games will give LED a shot in the arm, the opening ceremony of the "dream scroll" to be displayed in the more than 4 thousand and 500 square meters, a single color LED display the largest in the world, when a 45000 LED arrangement of the "fantasy rings" launch, enthusiastic people on LED to a new high. Unfortunately, in less than a year's time, China's LED industry from prosperity to dilemma. Only two months after the Olympic Games, corporate orders plummeted, prices plummeted, reality and imagination. The most developed Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta region (Figure 1), the most serious hit. In our survey of dozens of Companies in the fourth quarter, the average price of the product fell by more than 20%, orders reduced by half, 1/10 companies were forced to stop production. Although the local government strongly support, such as the Guangdong plan launched "Trinidad one hundred thousand" project, demonstration projects 1500 kilometers about 100 thousand streetlights, which Dongguan plans to add 22100 LED lights (on the principle of supplier selection, but limited to the local enterprises) or tide nanzu.

LED is undoubtedly a huge space for the sunrise industry, but the reality of the great contrast to the excitement still optimistic investment practitioners be taken by surprise, originally an embarrassing consequences. Many people blame the problems of the LED industry on the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis, and believe that the global economic recession has led to the shrinking of the overall demand, reducing the size of the market, reducing orders. Some people believe that the national LED standard promulgated accustomed to non normative Chinese production enterprises, especially the impact of downstream enterprises, and LED products of high prices, high power LED price is almost ten times the same power energy-saving lamp. For prices, some people think that the industry is due to Japan's Nichia and other leading by white chip prices, lead us to follow the trend of lower, and the Chinese Taiwan first-line manufacturers in 2007 on the market optimistic expectations and blind expansion, eventually overcapacity. Coupled with the end of the year, manufacturers have to sell inventory to accelerate the return of funds. These external influences undoubtedly exist, but only in appearance. In fact, the fundamental factors restricting the development of LED technology, as well as technical constraints caused by the uneven industrial structure. And China's unique blind decision-making, but also makes the majority of enterprises located in the very low and low end of the market.

The rapid expansion of downstream capacity led to a huge market demand imbalance between supply and demand has great appeal, but this does not mean that companies will have a comfortable space for development. Supply, or competition, together with the demand determines the level of profitability of enterprises, and the tragic competition is squeezed in the end of the Chinese enterprises can not get rid of the plight of the industry. The development process of China's LED industry is very similar to the home appliance industry. The huge market has aroused the investment enthusiasm of the market, can be used to describe the downstream link and fanaticism, due to low barriers to entry, easy expansion, this "short, flat, fast" business model is more China grassroots entrepreneurs favor. In the Pearl River Delta region, especially in Shenzhen, Dongguan LED production area, wash several cheap "machine" (referring to the manual welding wire machine, from English Bonding Machine), with a microscope, ovens and other equipment, hire a few people