More than 20 of the global semiconductor warning launched new factory installed

Semiconductor market research agency Strategic Marketing Associates (SMA) warned the latest report, the first half of 2005 more than 20 new Fab expansion installed after operation, the future production, verification, into mass production stage, in 2006 the global semiconductor will lead to overcapacity crisis, especially in the DRAM industry is the most serious.

SMA President George Burns pointed out that since the second half of 2003 the global semiconductor boom is determined to pick up, semiconductor manufacturers have to increase capital expenditure, the launch of a new wave of construction of Fab wave, not only led to the 2004 global semiconductor equipment market growth, to build speed, at present these new Fabs are installed into the stage, such as ultra (AMD) Dresden 12 inch plant Fab 36, SMIC Beijing plant 12 inch Fab 4, chartered (Chartered) the latest 12 inch Fab 7 factory.

Burns said, as these new Fabs will continue in the second half of 2005 to the first half of 2006 entered the production phase, overcapacity crisis, might make some manufacturers difficult to support, especially in the rapidly changing market conditions is the most serious DRAM manufacturer.

Burns pointed out that the factory of Korea SamSung (Samsung) in the last downturn, investment $12 inch plant construction, to import the advanced process of memory production, including DRAM and flash memory (Flash), which occupies a high cost advantage, Samsung if the implementation of the price strategy, the focus of attention will greatly affect the global market.

In addition, the Asia Pacific region is DRAM industry base, and foundry capacity center, light is the 2005 Asia Pacific semiconductor manufacturers capital expenditure accounted for half of the world, the Taiwan area and the South Korean new wave DRAM capacity will be opened, although theoretically manufacturers could delay the production process, but in fact, seize the initiative is the semiconductor industry success as long as the terminal market, demand has not yet been present, overcapacity crisis will not be lifted.

However, most of the Taiwan area DRAM fab for the saying that even if questioned, 2006 DRAM industry boom is not like 2004 as well, but also not too bad, because in 2006 the majority of DRAM plant will start using 90 nanometer process, but so far, in addition to Samsung 90 nanometer process yield made abroad most of the DRAM factory, is still in the exploratory stage at 90 nm yield, which will make the DRAM output for conversion to 90 nanometer process and reduce the number of.

In addition, since the second half of 2005 onwards there are 8 inch plant because of cost and benefit as output 12 inch plant, was forced to withdraw from the production of standard DRAM, and by 2006 is 8 inch plant evacuation time, so these 8 inch plant due to mass production of 512Mb DDRII and his total capacity caused by the exit loss will make 2006 DRAM industry should not be too pessimistic.

As for the foundry, although the first half of the 2005 recession, in addition to TSMC, other foundries all losses, but due to the high in 2010 before the global foundry output growth rate is higher than the overall growth rate of output value of semiconductor foundry market, plans to invest the number of firms has increased.

However, including TSMC and electricity are optimistic about the 2006 boom, stressed that should be better than in 2005, the outlook for the economy in 2006 is not pessimistic. In addition, Renesas technology president and CEO Ito said 12 days, the semiconductor boom is still in the stage of adjustment, the market is still quite severe, although it may be bottoming out before the summer, however, slow rebound.