Rigid OLED screen near the flexible screen will be far

OLED panel this year to accelerate the popularity of the mobile phone market, even apple has claimed that the next generation of mobile phones will use a flexible screen. But even if the rigid OLED panel is also in short supply, the domestic OLED industry chain has not been perfect, flexible OLED listing time.

In the end OLED is near or far away from us? July 1st held in Shenzhen, the 2016 China International OLED industry conference, Li Yaqin, deputy general manager of group intelligence consulting is expected, flexible OLED panels at least until after 2018 to market.

Li Yaqin also warned that, with the rapid change of the industry trend, Chinese need appropriate OLED panel to increase investment, and the key is to improve the industrial chain layout upstream of OLED materials and equipment, and prolong the life cycle of the LCD industry.

Source: swarm intelligence consulting

OLED panel production value of $12 billion this year

The world's major panel manufacturers in recent years have done a variety of occasions OLED technology preaching. For example, Samsung display foldable mobile phone, fold is 5.5 inches, opened into a 7.8 inch screen; LGD also demonstrated the flexibility of mobile phone, car screen; domestic BOE (BOE), and also shows the photoeloctronic OLED screen can be bent.

From the trend of production capacity, swarm intelligence data show that in 2015 AMOLED capacity growth of 45%, mainly LGD the LCD panel production capacity of the company's contribution to OLED. 2016 equipment investment transformation has slowed down, 2017~2018 year by year. 2018 due to equipment investment reached the peak, so the annual growth rate of 54%.

From the absolute point of view, in 2018 the annual production capacity of AMOLED will be more than 10 million square meters, including LTPS (low temperature polysilicon) OLED and large size OLED. From a structural point of view, the future growth is mainly from the LTPSOLED, is the mobile phone with AMOLED panel capacity.

The next few years, AMOLED investment will hit a record high, but still in the global panel production capacity is relatively low. Especially before 2018, the 6 generation line capacity based, in a large proportion of the display panel production capacity is still low. With the 2018 after the high generation AMOLED capacity to join, is expected in 2019 will exceed 10% of the area accounted for, by the year 2020 should be 11%~12%.

AMOLED panel is still the seller's market. Group wise consulting predicts that in 2016 the global AMOLEDLTPS panel sales amount of about $12 billion, is expected to account for the entire display panel sales of about 10%~11%. With the increase in production capacity and product mix, is expected in 2020 this part of the amount will gradually rise, reaching $17 billion in 2020.

Due to the rigidity of the AMOLED panel average unit price is gradually lower trend. Sales growth will not be able to grow so fast. Li Yaqin said that this year's sales of $12 billion in the AMOLED panel, there are about $3 billion 600 million from the contribution of flexible AMOLED panel, accounting for between 20%~30%.

Rigid OLED close

From the market, investment, cost, OLED is getting closer and closer to us.

First, the rapid penetration of the market. Li Yaqin predicted that the fourth quarter of this year, China's smart phone market penetration of the AMOLED panel will be close to 30%, higher than the global market penetration of about 20%. Previously, the media have reported that in 2018 the Apple Corp will use a large number of AMOLED panels. In addition to apple, the largest mobile phone users in China's AMOLED panel is expected to be OPPO. Samsung in recent years to actively promote the AMOLED panel sales in the Chinese market, OPPO, VIVO as a strategic partner.

Like OPPO, last year, the AMOLED panel in its mobile phone penetration rate of 20%, this year will reach nearly 50%, growing very rapidly. Because AMOLED is a seller's market, the two sides will determine the supply and demand of the entire AMOLED ecosystem. Li Yaqin said. While HUAWEI and OPPO are very different, the last AMOLED panel in their mobile phone penetration rate is almost zero, 2016 remained at less than 5%.

Second, the investment boom. Li Yaqin said that the world's six generation and the next generation of mobile phone panel production capacity, the proportion of AMOLED to 2018 reached about 40%, accounting for nearly 2020 of the proportion of 50%. Taking into account the yield and other factors, the proportion of OLED shipments will be slightly lower, is expected in 2020 in the 6 generation and the next generation of mobile phone panel shipments accounted for between 40%~45% to 6.

Third, the cost is close to the liquid crystal (LCD). "This is a surprise to the domestic industry, and the cost of rigid AMOLED is falling fast, especially from 2014 to the present. Li Yaqin said that the rapid decline in the cost of AMOLED, 5.5 inch FHD (Quan Gaoqing) LCD phone screen costs have dropped so fast.

Due to the different principles of the structure, the material cost of AMOLED accounted for much lower than the LCD, the cost of materials accounted for nearly 6 of the cost of about LCD, but the proportion of the cost of materials in the AMOLED is only 40%~45%. The other is depreciation, amortization and yield cost. Leading enterprises in the early production of AMOLED production line, part of the depreciation of the production line will soon be over. In other words, accounting for nearly 30% of depreciation costs will decline rapidly, AMOLED costs will decline rapidly. "

Li Yaqin expects: OLED panel costs will gradually close to the cost of LCD panels, and even lower than the cost of LCD in the visible future. This will be the biggest challenge facing the LCD industry, how to maintain their competitiveness is critical. "

Source: swarm intelligence consulting

Flexible OLED still far

However, OLED seems to be far away.

First, the advent of flexible panels is not so fast. Fixed curvature flexibility has achieved mass production, by 2018, the trend of OLED technology development should be around the fixed