Signs of bottoming out in Taiwan's semiconductor industry

Editor's note: the semiconductor industry as leading industry of progress of global high-tech industry, has the characteristics of obvious cyclical fluctuation. Enterprises in the industry hope to grasp the pulse of industrial development, in order to ensure that enterprises have the ability to achieve sustainable management. Fluctuations in the development of the semiconductor industry in the process, but also by virtue of some clues to determine the trend of industrial operations, IP Licensing companies authorized time, venture capital investment cycle has a certain reference value. But the more intuitive way is reflected in the semiconductor wafer foundry capacity utilization. China's Taiwan has more than half of the global foundry capacity, while TSMC, Lianhua Electronics (United) is more than the first, second of the leading OEM production status. Recent TSMC, joint power in production, investment and other aspects frequently shot, while Taiwan IC design companies generally raise interest rates. On the other hand, one of the packaging and testing industry as a pillar industry of Taiwan province manufacturing, along with the overall industrial development began to load on the order, an important base of China Taiwan as a global semiconductor manufacturing industry, represents the future trend of the development of the semiconductor industry, the signs began to show that Taiwan's semiconductor industry has begun to show signs of bottoming out the.

TSMC in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to full capacity utilization

As the world's largest wafer foundry, TSMC recently appeared in a variety of processes significantly enhance the capacity utilization of the phenomenon, there have been factories and some of the production capacity of the process began to be tight prosperity. Most industry insiders believe TSMC fourth quarter capacity utilization is expected to achieve full load. Although such estimates tend to be optimistic, TSMC forecasts still have considerable reliability.

It is understood that the prediction is prior to the date of TSMC internal meetings according to the customer on the individual process capacity requirements, the fourth quarter of the capacity utilization rate will reach the ideal conclusion full. In this regard, Taiwan IC design companies reflect different, due to the credibility of TSMC, so the industry is still optimistic about the news of the discussion.

It is reported that in the TSMC business meeting, the second half of 2005 for customers including 0.13 micron and below 90 nm process capacity, there is an obvious shortage of order amount, plus the internal 0.25 microns of the mature technology capacity increased rapidly since 2004, increase the number of new customers and drive IC simulation IC as the demand for larger, the rate is more than 90% of the average capacity utilization is expected to return to the. Therefore, the overall estimate of the fourth quarter capacity utilization is expected to be full.

However, TSMC spokesman system did not comment, saying only that the second quarter production operation is still with the previous agreement, and the third quarter operating target remains to be at the next meeting of legal person.

Part of the IC design company in Taiwan, said the current terminal market demand has not seen a substantial increase in the situation, it is necessary to imagine TSMC's fourth quarter capacity utilization can be full of the situation, it is difficult. Even in the second quarter, many products have been off-season phenomenon is not light, the terminal market, the system is still in the low-end inventory manufacturers. Therefore, if the second half cycle does appear strong growth in the short term, customer orders are pouring in, foundries will indeed have a short-term supply less, while capacity utilization also have the opportunity to achieve the goal of full.

Therefore, overall, if TSMC 12 inch production line capacity in advance to play a role in order is oversubscribed, while 8 inches longer drag on the overall production capacity, with the peak season demand capacity utilization rose to more than 85% level. As long as the second quarter of the capacity utilization rate of 12 inches is indeed more than more than 100%, TSMC is indeed possible to achieve full load.

IC design industry interest rate growth is expected to reduce the price of foundry wafer will increase profits

Although Taiwan province foundry capacity is tight, and there is considerable pressure on the price for the IC design company, but Taiwan IC design companies in the second quarter shipments are produced in the first quarter of the cheaper wafer case, supplemented by a mature product cost reduction project began to show benefits, most of the Taiwan design industry forecast the second quarter, gross margin will be higher than the first quarter increased significantly, the single season increased by about 5%.

Taiwan Lianfa line design companies branch, Sunplus and Realtek etc. Although the second quarter revenue growth only slightly compared to the first quarter, and even some design companies also a slight decline in the situation. However, in the foundry cost decline, the market most estimated MediaTek two quarter average gross profit rate is high and the opportunity to return to the 50%; Sunplus second quarter gross margin also rose about 3% over the first quarter of 30% the challenges impact strength; Realtek is likely to return to the level of 40%.

Looking forward to the third quarter, although most of the foundry offer has canceled most of the measures, in the upcoming hot season began to raise prices, so that the price is very cheap before the foundry die in the market. However, because of the season in the second quarter shipments still wafer cost, plus the cost of continuing reduction scheme, and the higher gross margin of new product line production in the third quarter will begin to increase significantly, so the third quarter profit can expect increased significantly. At this point, the first line of the design of the third quarter gross profit margin is still maintained a balanced upward view.

In addition to the first quarter of the first quarter of the second quarter design significantly higher gross profit margins, previously been suppressed by the high cost of wafer and small design