The fluctuation of LED chip industry overall upward, leading enterprises, Heng Qiang strong

LED chip industry overall upward fluctuations

The long cycle perspective, LED chip development in the "driver Heinz law", in the backlight, lighting and display in different fields such as osmotic growth, application field and the size of the market continues to expand. Short cycle dimension, LED chip production capacity due to the mismatch of supply and demand, and the industry chain in excess ordering leads to the formation of the amplification effect of negative feedback, features in the game of supply and demand under the LED chip industry also has periodic.

Short view: 1H2018 and resonance, LED chip profitability is relatively stable

On the supply side, a leading manufacturer of rational plant expansion situation than expected 1H2018 global LED chip production capacity increased only about 5% in 4Q2017 (without considering the capacity; on the demand side exit), expected around 2018 LED lighting will be an increase of 10%, small spacing dimension in the LED display to the growth rate of about 30%, other some segments such as the car also has a high growth potential, overall demand is expected to end with the growth of 8~9%. Therefore, 1H2018 LED chip in the weak state of equilibrium of supply and demand, the price will still maintain the orderly.

In the long term perspective: LED applications continue to expand, the future prices will slow down

LED lighting market penetration is expected to continue to increase, the small pitch LED display will also maintain a high growth rate, Micro LED/Mini LED LED is expected to open space to grow up and downstream applications more flowering, the corresponding demand LED chip is expected to maintain a high growth rate. At the same time, the expected future marginal revenue enhance light efficiency decreased gradually, increases efficiency will be slowing down, so the cost decline will slow down, the long-term perspective of LED chip price decline will tend to be gentle.

The transfer of production capacity, the mainland LED chip leader Heng Qiang strong

The mainland LED chip manufacturers in the support of local government, relying on capital and scale advantages to actively expand production, transfer to the mainland LED chip production capacity, industry concentration has improved significantly, according to the LEDinside disclosure, 2017, total global production capacity of 58%, the top three manufacturers accounted for 68%, the overall production capacity. In recent years MOCVD of domestic equipment to consolidate domestic leading competitive advantage, at the same time, Sanan optoelectronics, HC semitek leading to the integration of the upstream sapphire substrate, LED chip, leading Heng Qiang strong.

Source: Financial Network

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