Consumer electronics to promote growth in demand for semiconductors PC has the potential to dig

Recently in the industry integration, the lack of killer applications, the PC market has become increasingly saturated under the influence of the semiconductor industry growth has gradually slowed down phenomenon. Market research firm In-Stat chief analyst Jim McGregor held in Taipei city in the days before the seminar is very optimistic, but sure.

He believes that consumer electronics and emerging markets will be the main driving force for future semiconductor demand, although there is no killer application, but including PC, digital home, digital office, automotive electronics, communication and other fields will drive the growth of the market. In particular, he refuted the PC market saturation argument, and pointed out that the new technology and the use of new models will continue to grow the PC market.

For the semiconductor market outlook, Jim McGregor put forward the "market turning point" (Market Inflection Point) important observation indicators. He explained, "if there are two important factors of new technology, changing consumer usage patterns, an emerging market is expected to rise." For example, through the data network for voice communication VoIP, long distance wireless broadband WiMAX, the actual media into a virtual media music / video download service and so on, these new technology not only changed the supply of equipment, terminal products, service style, has also changed the consumer usage patterns are successful market transition example.

In this view, he believes that PC, consumer electronics, digital home will be the main application of semiconductor demand in the future, followed by digital office, automotive electronics and communications applications.

To PC, he said, at present, only 14.5% of the world's population using the Internet, from this point, I can say that the PC market is still very early saturation." In addition, with the wireless broadband, UWB and other new technologies continue to be added to the PC, but also makes the use of PC has a more diverse appearance. "Now the consumer will demand and usage in accordance with different individuals to buy PC, screen size, battery life, etc. every kind of multimedia capabilities into consideration, but also to PC/NB market products more and more diversified. Since performance is no longer the only consideration for consumers, it is also a natural impact on semiconductor manufacturers and computer operators."

Jim McGregor believes that the future of the PC will have a variety of exterior design (new form factor), with different consumer habits, PC will integrate all kinds of different devices, or there will be a modular PC. At the same time, but also because of the potential of emerging markets, and three tier thread will have the opportunity to enter the highly competitive market.

On the future of the PC market shipments forecast, he believes that will continue to grow, from 200 million units in 2005, to 2009 is expected to increase to the size of the 300 million units. Although shipments continued to grow, but the Jim McGregor also admitted that due to the extremely competitive price, PC market revenue growth will be weak, but as long as the white card products can not enter into the notebook computer market, the industry can at least maintain good profits.

For Intel to push Media PC, trying to bring PC into the living room, Jim McGregor are conservative. He pointed out that the "digital home will also be one of the important market in the future, but I think the future of digital home should be distributed (distributed) product combination, not by a leading product. For example, may organic boxes, video device, game machine, gateway, media server and a number of consumers in the home, according to their needs together, people in the industry, how to ensure that the products of the seamless connection, data sharing and application compatibility, will be more important challenge. It is not practical to use only one Media PC to replace all of these products."

For the years ahead of the semiconductor market, Jim McGregor predicted that 2005 to 2010 compound annual growth rate of 6.2% this year, the global semiconductor market revenue will reach $245 billion, than last year growth of 8%, and next year the growth rate is at 12%, to $274 billion.