Polysilicon supply into roadblocks semiconductor growth

According to market research company J-Star Global president and chief executive officer of Yoshihisa Toyosaki, polysilicon shortage may cause the semiconductor market growth in 2006 than expected in the industry, in 2007 and may be stalled. Yoshihisa Toyosaki has served as head of market research firm iSuppli Japanese business.

Toyosaki said in the prediction of the semiconductor market growth prospects, the material supply chain and demand situation is as important as. He said that although the semiconductor industry in the supply of silicon will continue to assume the assumption of growth, but it does need to focus on ensuring the supply of polysilicon. There are forecasts that the semiconductor market will grow by about 10% this year and next, mainly based on the analysis of electronic products for semiconductor demand. However, if the semiconductor and solar cells continue to grow, the supply of polysilicon will be a gap. Polysilicon shortage will be a new factor affecting the semiconductor business cycle."

J-Star estimation, polysilicon production last year was 30 thousand tons, of which about 2/3 for semiconductor production, the remaining 1/3 for the production of solar cells. Solar cell production has grown at an annual rate of 45% since 2001. J-Star estimates that, due to the expansion of production capacity, polysilicon production in 2007 will reach 40 thousand tons. However, the demand for polycrystalline silicon solar cell industry in the same period will double to 20 thousand tons.

Polysilicon suppliers have noticed this, and expand production capacity. Wacker Chemie in Munich, Germany, said from the beginning of this week to the end of 2009, will expand the production capacity of polysilicon, expanding the range from 4500 tons to 14500 tons.

J-Star predicted that if the distribution between IC and polycrystalline silicon solar cell industry proportion to maintain the current level, then the next two years the chip market will be increased by 6.3% and 8.7%, this forecast is lower than the Global Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) forecast of 10.1% and 11%.

If the solar cell industry to use a larger proportion of the polysilicon, while the next two years the consumption of the polysilicon industry proportion will increase respectively to 35% and 40%. Toyosaki said that this will lead to the next two years, the growth rate of the semiconductor market slowed down to 3.6% and 0.3%.

He warned: "I think the proportion not between the two polysilicon industry changes, and predict the semiconductor market growth of 8.7% next year. However, the proportion of polysilicon distribution may change, and lead to deterioration of the semiconductor industry prospects." He called on chip makers and OEM to develop a strategic plan to take into account the polysilicon shortage.

The shortage of polysilicon has appeared for a long time, the situation intensified, the spot price of the material soared. Some of the leading polysilicon suppliers, such as Hemlock, MEMC, Mitsubishi, Materials, REC and Wacker OEM production can not meet the demand for strong growth, and according to industry sources, they even sold out in the next two to three years of inventory.