Semiconductor equipment market peaked in 2008

This year stable to 12% growth forecast based on semiconductor equipment market, fixed industry analysts on 2006 and after a short period of fixed equipment prospects for cautious optimism. The general view of analysts, although in 2006 and 2007 the semiconductor industry fast growth cycle may lead to faster than expected, we can still see the fixed equipment market is expected in 2008 the next round of the peak. In the consumer electronics, chip manufacturing and other major driving forces, the overall market is good to help drive the fixed equipment market, when the equipment investors will invest in 300mm and 65nm technology fab.

According to Crimson Ventures analyst Drew Peck said that the consumer electronics industry is expected to be the next big event". Peck pointed out that in the SEMI's recent seminar on industrial policy analyst, the United States currently has an average of 25 consumer electronics products, developing countries will soon become a very important consumer market.

Similar to the ups and downs of oil prices and the weak real estate market and other macroeconomic will play a major role in driving the u.s..

"Since entering the 2006, the U.S. market has been good," said Risto, President of the VLSI Research Institute, "any downward trend has come from changes in the economy of the Puhakka." VLSI predicts that in 2006 the revenue will be the biggest growth in wafer equipment, about 7%, followed by test equipment and assembly market, respectively, and 5% and 4%.

According to research firm Lehman Brothers analyst Edward White said, the company entered a good year. He said that in the past few years in order to cut costs and layoffs and restructuring of the situation has gone, 2006 is the year of the growth of the equipment market, the peak reached in early 2007.

Although the industry as a whole is quite optimistic, Gartner believes that the industry's most prosperous stage has not yet arrived, 2006, 2007 and 2008, the steady development of the majority of analysts agree.

"We saw strong growth in capital equipment and more and more," Gartner semiconductor manufacturing and design research group vice president of Klaus management Rinnen said, "even though they are not enough to change our fundamental view of the business cycle to the next round, but they did indeed increase our expectations for the next few years the capital expenditure and buying."

But the potential danger still exists, such as wafer demand may occur in the Spot and the shortage of polysilicon in the packaging process of the shortage, they may limit the flexibility of market supply, resulting in only reached the medium level of spending. On the whole, Gartner fixed equipment sales growth of up to 8.6%, among them, all of the major equipment parts factory, wafer packaging factory, assembly plant and ATE (automatic test equipment) and other manufacturers are able to see this growth.

Take a look at the global investment in wafer equipment. Gartner expects 2006 spending grew 3.3% to $26 billion 600 million. "We expect to see the money and wafer equipment market growth is due to the equipment demand and investment growth to a new technology node cost increase," said Rinnen, "is expected when each new technology node equipment cost increased to 10%, manufacturers will be very cautious about new investment in technology management."

For the global packaging and assembly equipment market in 2006, the forecast will grow by 22.1% to $4 billion 900 million. This is undoubtedly a good news for the packaging and assembly manufacturers, they can make good use of the market in 2005 after the rebound fell 11.1% chance.

For ATE vendors, in 2005 revenue, if not all - should also be most of the revenue, in the first half of the plunge. Fortunately, in the second half of 2006, ATE spending will rise sharply. The growth in capital demand driven by memory and SoC testing has stimulated the ATE market boom, Rinnen said, is expected in 2006 ATE market will grow by 29%, reaching $4 billion 900 million.

So it seems that the equipment market situation is good. But not all analysts are so optimistic. Some analysts believe that the equipment market has been overestimated, the next equipment sales season is far from coming.