The appreciation of the renminbi is likely to accelerate in China to make the necessary preparations for the reform of the exchange rate

In the premise of "by surprise", talk about a renminbi appreciation recently also can be heard without end. As the days passed, the calm reality played a joke on the prediction of noise. Aside from the specific time of RMB appreciation, what is behind it? Reporters interviewed for this. : long-term appreciation is a invariant

"The appreciation of the renminbi, as long as one is not sure.", Goldman Sachs Asia expert Liang Hong 10, in an Chinese Economic Times reporters pointed out that "and the external pressure is too large, may also have accelerated".

Reporters found that Liang Hong's judgment and the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan recently in public position has been generally. "If there is pressure, you can make the pace of reform faster," said Zhou Xiaochuan at the end of 4 in Hainan, the Asian Forum on the speech. The background was that "the United States and other members of the 7 big industrial countries are calling on China to act quickly on exchange rate policy." Because of China's exports and foreign exchange reserves has led to a sharp increase in the number of accusations that the yuan is seriously undervalued."

Is the renminbi really "grossly undervalued"? Macroeconomic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, Wang Zhao, 10, in an interview with this reporter also pointed out that the RMB exchange rate is undervalued, expanding the scope of the float is only a matter of time". As far as the number of deviations, Wang Zhao believes that the current market is concerned, can not estimate, even if there are estimates, there are deviations". Wang Zhao pointed out that the implementation of a deviation from the long-term equilibrium level of the exchange rate, which brings great difficulties to the operation of monetary policy, also caused China's economy to export-oriented economy tilt and tilt to the coastal economy, resulting in distortion of the economic structure and social welfare to a certain degree of loss.

The people's Bank of China financial market division Wang Yu from the Peso Crisis (Mexico financial crisis) pointed out the harm of the peg system. Wang Yu believes that the peg system is not sustainable, so the passive exit will pay a high cost. At the end of 1994, a financial crisis that shook the world broke out in Mexico and spread to Latin American countries such as Brazil, Argentina and chile. The reason is that the government of Mexico dollar peg long long, lost the opportune moment; when the situation worsened, suddenly quit, the market is out of control, the peso overshoot. To this end, Wang Yu pointed out that the withdrawal of the peg exchange rate system is the fundamental way to solve the problem of overvalued peso, and exit timing and order is the key to ensure the smooth transition of the exchange rate system.

In fact, the yen was forced to learn lessons can be learned: the Japanese central bank to reduce the impact of the yen's appreciation of the domestic economy, in 1986 for the four consecutive rate cut. In 1987, compliance with the agreement, the Bank of Japan will be reduced to 2.5% discount rate, and maintained for a long time in two years and three months. Thus, the asset bubble came into being, a lot of money into the real estate and stock market. Another bad consequence is that the long-term low interest rates eventually led to Japan into what Keynes called the "liquidity trap", the interest rate is close to zero, deflation is still old, monetary policy failure. Although Japan has tried to use expansionary fiscal policy, but because of the bad debts of banks, the effect of fiscal policy is still unable to stimulate the domestic economy.

Market: prepare for a rainy day

Just look at the recent reform of the China foreign exchange trading center, it can be inferred that China is currently in fact for the upcoming reform of the exchange rate to do the necessary market preparation".

Liang Hong pointed out that China's foreign exchange trading center from May 18th onwards, the increase in foreign exchange trading system in the types of foreign currency transactions, from the current dollar, euro, yen, Hong Kong dollar 4 to expand to the 12.

Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, explained: "it is very likely that China will take the opportunity to announce the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime."

Liang Hong said, although the exchange will launch foreign exchange transactions in May 18th, trading is based on the dollar, yen and euro dollar, four foreign varieties, increase the pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and other foreign varieties, launched a variety of foreign exchange is HK $$$, yen, pound the dollar, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, $$$Euro euro, yen and other 8 kinds of foreign exchange trading varieties, the varieties of the international market is currently the main trading varieties.

In the launch of the transaction varieties, although it does not appear to contain currency, but when the possibility of greater increase, Liang Hong pointed out.

In addition, China foreign exchange trading center has selected 9 banks as market maker, of which 7 were foreign banks, 2 banks, these banks are Citibank, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Holland bank, Holland commercial bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Bank of Montreal, Canada China bank and CITIC Industrial bank.

Liang Hong hinted that the introduction of foreign exchange trading varieties should be in the pilot system to explore the dollar market maker.

Another concern is that the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar in April 29th trading, a sudden short break over the years in the 8.277 fluctuation of not more than 0.3% of the conventional, climbed to the level of 8.270. Although the central bank spokesman said, this may be the dealer's technical mistakes, but many market participants still believe that this is the appreciation of the renminbi to drill, test the RMB