The rise of the semiconductor industry refused to bubble theory

China's new wave of semiconductor construction boom coming. With SMIC Wuhan 12 inch and 12 inch line Shanghai line laying plan is completed, the day before Shanghai Huahong also reported a 12 inch line to complete the equipment installation, commissioning work of the upcoming news.

But on the other hand, Changzhou neekit Microelectronics Corporation, Ningbo company, Beijing Zhongning microelectronics fullcomp international 3 built in 8 inch line have announced the shutdown or bankruptcy...... For a time in the industry to produce shock, it was even claimed that China's first round of semiconductor industry bubble burst soon.

60% will be eliminated?

"Bubble theory" from the United states. In July 10th, SEMI (global semiconductor equipment and Materials Industry Association) China Market Research Manager Ni Zhaoming in SemiconWest (global semiconductor equipment and materials exhibition in the western United States) said that due to lack of funds, partners and manufacturing experience, the next few years, more than half, or even 60% of the China semiconductor factory will lead to failure.

The fate of the 8 inch factories seemed to echo his words. Changzhou neekit was declared a "semiconductor industry star", won the Intel technology and equipment support, is the first time Intel has signed a cooperation agreement with the China manufacturers. But it is understood that Intel had planned to move just 8 inches of chip technology and equipment to the cashier, and without any substantial investment. Now she had to shut down into financial crisis. The same money plight of the Fukang international. Fukang international was originally planned in Tianjin, later announced a $600 million investment in Beijing Lin River Industrial Zone, is also not the noise.

Meanwhile, more projects are in the pipeline. According to an authoritative Research Institute released the news that, by 2008, at least 40 more than the wafer factory plans to build in mainland china. Some people have been searching around the 11th Five-Year plan, and found that at least 12 local governments are keen to chip manufacturers to invest in local factories, including a lot of 8 inch lines and some of the 12 inch line.

Enthusiasm often encounters "cold water"". Wang Yangyuan pointed out that the establishment of the chip production line must have at least 3 conditions: complete industrial chain, abundant capital and human resources, intensive customer groups. He believes that the current national only Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Suzhou surrounding areas have the above conditions. "China does not need so many Silicon Valley, but also can not accommodate so many semiconductor center." A Taiwanese chip manufacturers to visit the mainland summary. The semiconductor industry should be based on market demand in the long run, the government can matchmaking, create business opportunities, but the key is to proceed according to the actual economic area. Those who are simply promised concessions industry layout is difficult to attract investment.

The 60% semiconductor manufacturers will be eliminated, a senior industry expert Mo Dakang in an "China electronic newspaper" interview with reporters that the number 60% may also be a metaphor, but the future is sure to face integration. But strictly speaking, out of the object should be the "planning project of the construction project or rush on like a swarm of hornets", instead of the existing semiconductor factory. He stressed that in the next few years, China's semiconductor plant through the siege, there are out there, the total will remain stable at about 30 or so, which is enough to meet the existing capacity requirements.

Still at the rise of

The global market seems to have deepened the gait "bubble" swollen. According to the latest market research firm iSuppli data, PC client demand by the downstream effects of stagnation, the global semiconductor inventory in the second quarter of 2006 highs of $2 billion for the highest level since the third quarter of 2002. At the same time, according to market research firm SMA report, the second quarter of 2006 has started the construction of up to 11 new fabs, which has 8 seats in 2007 on-line operation, so a total of about 35 new Fabs launched in 2007 put into operation, will reduce the total capacity of the global semiconductor industry reached unprecedented levels, estimated monthly capacity 2 million piece (by 8 inch wafer calculation, an increase of 17% over the existing capacity). Such a situation to observe the semiconductor industry for 20 years, SMA President George Burns issued a warning, I am afraid that in 2007 will face overcapacity crisis.

However, more experts believe that the adjustment and elimination of the industry is normal, bubble theory exaggerated. Li Ke, director of the China Semiconductor Industry Association Information Department believes that in many cases, the failure of individual investment projects on the overall prosperity of the failure, even more than the bubble. The semiconductor industry is a global industry, industry data from a global point of view, the "bubble theory" the lack of adequate support, even if the stock surge occurred in the second quarter only price war led by Chibidaigou customers. Including WSTS, iSuppli, including a number of market research institutions on the 2006 global semiconductor market growth forecast results are between 8%-11%. ISuppli also believes that China's semiconductor industry will maintain at least two digit growth in 2009, in which the chip design industry is growing at an annual rate of more than 30%.

, President of the World Semiconductor Council in 2006, the U.S. semiconductor industry association (SIA) chairman Brian L.Halla recently said that the rapid development of China's semiconductor industry to make the global semiconductor industry is excited". Chinese semiconductor industry association chairman Yu Zhongyu said, "fifteen" during the period of China's semiconductor products self-sufficiency rate of only 20%, "11th Five-Year" period is expected to achieve domestic production accounted for 30% of total demand (~ 40% of total global output increased from 4% to 8%), the space is still very large.

Mo Kang stressed that the silicon cycle is not equal